This is the members only edition of Future Crunch, a weekly roundup of good news, mindblowing science, and the best bits of the internet (not necessarily in that order). One third of your subscription fee goes to charity
Our apologies for last week's missed edition.
We were released into the wild after 264 days in captivity here in Melbourne, and decided we should probably celebrate the end of the world's longest lockdown outside in a park, rather than inside staring at a screen. Regular service has now resumed! We've got a bumper issue for you this week, including everything you need in order to not completely lose your mind over COP26. Without further ado...
Good news you probably didn't hear about
The largest and most successful vaccination drive of all time continues: India just surpassed a billion doses, making it the second country in the world to hit this mark. China leads the tally with over two billion, while Brazil has dispensed 258 million and Indonesia 172 million. Gobal total is now seven billion and counting. Quartz
The number of people killed in wars around the world fell in 2020, the second consecutive year of declines. Total battle related fatalities last year were approximately 120,000, a 30% reduction since 2018. The decrease was largely driven by reductions in Asia, Oceania, and the Middle East. SIPRI
A rapid roll-out of a new polio vaccine across six countries in Africa has resulted in over 80 million children gaining protection against the disease. With decreased risk of side effects, the new vaccine was the first to be authorised by WHO for Emergency Use, which has enabled a faster response to polio outbreaks this year. WHO
"The progress made by the six countries and the upcoming rollout in five additional countries, targeting an additional 30 million children by the end of 2021 promise lasting protection from the threat of lifelong paralysis."
Dr Pascal Mkanda, Polio Eradication Programme Coordinator WHO Regional Office for Africa
Chile has taken its first step towards legalising abortion with its Congress approving a plan to expand current legislation that restricts the procedure to rape cases or when a woman's life is endangered. Across Latin America, it is now legal for women to choose what happens to their bodies in Agentina, Ecuador, Uruguay, Cuba, Guyana, and three Mexican states. Al Jazeera
Pakistan is an unheralded development success story from the last two decades. Between 1990 and 2019, life expectancy at birth increased by 7.2 years, average schooling increased by 2.9 years, average income rose by 64%, and poverty declined from over 50% to just over 20%. The pandemic has been a setback, but most Pakistanis are still far better off than they were a generation ago. UNDP
Despite experiencing rapid rates of demographic growth and urbanisation, Senegal has been extraordinarily successful in managing sanitation. Thanks to visionary government programs, the rate of access to sanitation in urban areas has risen from 61.7% in 2013 to 74% in 2020, and in rural areas from 38.7% to 50.7% during the same period. Afrik21
In a mountainous, desert nation of 35 million people known for its mosques, mausoleums and ancient Silk Road sites, 80% of eligible voters just cast votes in a presidential election. It's a testament to the strength of emerging democratic norms in Uzbekistan, Afghanistan's neighbour, with officials there calling it “one of the historical achievements of our people.” JPost
Bangladesh is planning to remove Islam as the state religion and revert to its secular 1972 Constitution. It’s hoped the move will unite the country and tackle a growing radical Islamist movement that’s resulted in violence against Hindu temples. Islam was made the state religion by a Constitutional amendment during the late 1980s.
Bangladesh is a secular country. People of all religions shall live together in Bangladesh. Religion may be personal, but festival is universal. And people in Bangladesh have always celebrated such festivals together.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina
Saving the world is cheaper than ruining it
The world's great and the good have gathered in Glasgow, accompanied by tens of thousands of earnest activists, curious onlookers and showponies, and that means there's going to be lot of media attention. Reporters are going to be hunting for angles, and the most obvious one is WILL THEY SAVE THE WORLD? Spoiler alert: they won't, but that's not really why they're all there. We thought we'd save you the anguish, with a quick guide to what really matters.
The most important thing to understand is that this is not actually a planet-saving meeting, but instead a hefty 'click' in a climate ratchet mechanism that's already well underway. When the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, it started a clock that meant every five years, countries have to raise their ambitions on cutting emissions. That's because there's still a huge gap between what countries have committed to do what's ultimately needed.
In the leadup to COP26, we've heard a lot about how big that gap is. What you probably haven't is that it's a lot narrower than it used to be. Don't buy into the doomism. In the intervening years there's been a ton of progress. Before Paris we were on track for 4°C. Current policies now have us on track for 3°C and the newly announced pledges get us to 2.4°C. That's still too hot. But it shows the ratchet mechanism is working. Countries representing over 80% of global GDP and 70% of global emissions have now pledged net zero by 2050 or, in the case of China, Saudi Arabia and a few others, 2060.
Most takes you're going to see in the next few weeks are going to be about how it's all so difficult and who's winning and who's losing and what's going wrong and eventually, how COP26 was a failure and a stain on the human race. In one way, they will be right. We should have started this 20 years ago, not five. We've left things too late to avoid some pretty bad impacts, and it looks like 1.5°C is now out of reach. But the failure narrative obscures a very important point: 2°C is definitely achievable now, and every 0.1°C we can squeeze in underneath that is a victory.
For COP26, you need to look out for the specifics. Pay particular attention to anything about rules for a global carbon market. Any progress on that front, and on who gets to count what carbon reductions where, unlocks enormous amounts of finance. Extra commitments in finance for developing countries are important too; rich countries have stumped up around $80 billion so far, which is not far off the $100 billion agreed at Paris, but we're going to need more. Oh, and watch out for any announcements on methane, and the creation of a ratchet-style mechanism that could place more pressure on the gas industry.
In terms of new commitments on emissions reductions, you can pretty safely ignore everyone except for China, India, the US and Europe. Where they go, others will follow. China in particular has an outsized importance - it emits the same amount of carbon as the US, Russia and Japana combined. Keep that in mind when everyone is doing their handwringing. Petrochina’s emissions alone are estimated to exceed that of Vietnam and South Korea combined, and one of Sinopec’s units spews more CO2 than all of Canada. If China makes even the tiniest commitment or shifts its position by a fraction, that's very, very good news.
Don't forget too, that the battle to wind down the fossil fuel industry proceeds on two tracks: the political and the financial. Follow the money! The pace of innovation in technology, the underlying rate of cost reductions in clean solutions, and the awakening of the global financial sector to climate finance are just as important as individual country pledges. Global capital markets have already put an effective carbon tax of around $80-$100 per tonne on gas, oil and coal projects by increasing the cost of capital - and those prices are going to feel like the good old days for fossil fuels executives even a year from now.
On this front, keep an eye out for any more announcements by large institutional investors. They all now see very clearly that fossil fuels are a bad bet, and they want out. As the financial tides recede, the whales of the old economy will be left stranded on the beach, and it's going to happen far sooner than anyone realises. Divestment is an essential building block of financial logic that opens the door for a decarbonized economy, and it's arguably the best climate news story out there right now. There's a reason so many finance ministers are coming to Glasgow. Watch what they say.
Last but not least, ignore anything said by the Australian delegation. Their promises have the same strength as a wet paper bag.
Some other good news on climate and energy you might not have heard about
On Tuesday, less than a week before the start of COP26, activists announced that endowments, portfolios and pension funds worth just shy of $40 trillion have now committed to full or partial abstinence from coal, gas and oil stocks. That’s larger than the gross domestic product of the United States and China combined. NYT
One of the world’s largest pension funds, the Dutch ABP, is selling its €15bn-worth of holdings in fossil fuel companies, including Royal Dutch Shell, claiming it has been unable to persuade the sector to transition quickly enough towards decarbonisation. Guardian
A sizeable chunk of the global cement sector has committed to slashing emissions by a quarter this decade – and to be carbon neutral by 2050. The target was just announced by the Global Cement and Concrete Association, which represents about 80% of the industry outside of China
In an effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in global trade, a coalition of companies that includes Amazon and Ikea has pledged to use only ocean shippers that use zero-carbon fuel by 2040. Washington Post
A coalition of philanthropic donors will spend more than $220 million to support the diplomatic effort spearheaded by the U.S. and the European Union to lower methane emissions, the largest private commitment ever toward this effort. AP
After years of pushing from environmental justice advocates, California has agreed to dramatically restrict oil and gas drilling, setting a new one kilometre limit away from from homes and schools. It's a huge victory in the climate fight because it instantly sets around a third of the state off limits to oil drilling. OilPrice
Quebec has decided to put an end to any further fossil fuel extraction. "Closing the door on fossil fuel extraction is a huge victory, made possible by relentless opposition from citizens to both shale gas and conventional oil and gas exploitation." National Observer
Guess what the best selling car in Europe was last month? Not the best selling electric vehicle - the best selling car, overall. Clue: Hertz just bought 100,000 of them for its new fleet, the largest electric car order of all time.
The government of Chile has announced the ban of sales of most internal combustion vehicles in favor of battery-electric variants starting in 2035. Under the new electric transport strategy, all sales of light and medium vehicles, public transport and heavy trucks will have to be zero-emissions. We Go Electric
The only home we've ever known
Indonesia has created over 50,000 hectares of new mangrove forests in the past two years, from 3.31 million hectares in 2019 to 3.36 million today, thanks to a planting project in villages across East Kalimantan. The new ecosystems will help improve biodiversity and mitigate the impact of climate change. WIF
Ten years ago, the first blow was struck against the Elwha dam, amidst much celebration. The rewilding of the Elwha River has paid off, with the ecosystem bouncing back and chinook salmon returning to the waters after a hundred year absence. This beautiful photo essay shows how quickly nature can bounce back, if we let it. Orion
Two locations in West Virginia’s Canaan Valley Resort State Park have been added to a new state program to protect rare plant and animal species. The areas are home to 2,200 acres of rare conifer swamps, red spruce forest, over 40 rare plants and 12 rare invertebrates. Wowktv
The Biden administration is supporting a 20-year moratorium on copper mining in a national forest to protect the 'unique natural wonder' of Minnesota's Boundary Waters. It’s a major win for environmental groups who have endured a stop-start process under previous administrations. Salem News
For the first time in 60 years, cheetahs have returned to Mozambique, with two males and two females transported to Maputo Special Reserve as part of a rewilding project to reintroduce carnivores to ecologically restored landscapes and expand the shrunken gene pool. Daily Maverick
The reintroduction of cheetah is yet another historic conservation milestone in Mozambique and the development of the reserve into a self-sustaining operation that generates revenue for the communities living in the area.
Mateus Mutemba, Director-General, National Administration of Conservation Areas
Malawi has dramatically reduced wildlife poaching and trafficking in the past five years, thanks to tougher penalties for convicted criminals. 90% of wildlife criminals have served an average of four and half years in prison since the legislation was amended in 2017, and no international ivory seizures have been linked to the country since. NYT
Sea turtle populations are thriving in Cape Verde, with the number of nests increasing from 10,000 to almost 200,000 in the past six years. It's thanks to 20 years of conservation measures and new laws to criminalise killing, trade, and consumption of sea turtles. Beaches from India to the US have also recorded exponential increases in nesting. Guardian
The population of wild Amur tigers in China, commonly referred to as Siberian Tigers, has rebounded from only 8 big cats in the 1990s to around 60 today. The good news is thanks to government environmental policies and the creation of several reserves, including the largest tiger refuge in the world. Mongabay
Persistent efforts to protect tigers have paid off. Change has not come quickly, but there has been slow, steady progress, and we see there are great opportunities for even more recovery.
Dale Miquelle, Director of the Wildlife Conservation Society
Indistinguishable from magic
A welcome reminder of what people are capable of. NASA's James Webb Telescope has reached French Guiana, and preparations are now underway for the launch. You should definitely take eight minutes to understand just how insane the whole plan is. Solar sails FTW.
Engineers have figured out how to squeeze another 2MW out of the Haliade X, the largest wind turbine on the planet. The extra power comes purely from optimization, resulting in a single 14MW machine that saves 11,000 cars worth of emissions per year. The first of these monsters will start appearing off the coast of England next year. Offshore Wind
Surgeons in New York have successfully attached a kidney from a genetically altered pig to a brain dead human patient, where it worked normally for 54 hours. The kidney was obtained by knocking out a pig gene that creates an aggressive human rejection response. It's the first ever operation of its kind. “This is a huge breakthrough. It’s a big, big deal.” NYT
Researchers from Spain and the UK have designed an antibody that tackles the problem of cellular senescence, recognizing proteins on the surface of ageing cells, and then releasing a drug to remove them. This technique paves the way for treatments for age-related diseases and in the longer run, perhaps even the ageing process itself. Phys.org
Around 100,000 genetically altered barley plants are being grown in a greenhouse in Iceland for an unexpected purpose: to extract growth factor proteins for lab grown meat. This could be a gamechanger; most lab grown meat still relies on growth serum derived from cow fetuses. 'Meat plants' would be a lot more humane. BBC
One big goal of modern genetics is to close the phenotype gap by mapping exactly how the exome - the protein-coding parts of the genome - accounts for differences in human health. Geneticists in New York have taken a big step towards that goal, after analysing 450,000 individuals’ genomes and discovering 564 brand new gene variations associated with known health traits. Nature
The information superhighway is still awesome
The idea that emotions like joy, sadness, anger, fear and disgust are universal has dominated psychology for more than 50 years. Armed with new evidence and more sophisticated research methods, a growing number of scientists now say that idea is outdated, and that our emotions - what we feel, and how we feel it - depend less on biology and more on the language we use and the culture we come from. Aeon
Rolling Stone has updated its list of the 500 greatest songs of all time (the last time they did this was 2004). Only one new song since then has entered the top 20. Ultimately, what's most interesting about these lists is how they reflect the cultural moment they're created in, and you can definitely sense that here. Can't go too wrong by spinning up the Spotify list and hitting shuffle either.
Richard Powers, author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning Overstory, with a beautiful meditation on kinship. “Conscious creatures have an extraordinary capacity to form attachments without regard to the cost to their own individual fitness. Kinship is the ability to see my fate in theirs, even when the family resemblance is largely a leap of faith.” Emergence.
It took Deep Thought 7.5 million years to calculate the answer to the ultimate question. Here, French mathematician Jean-Paul Delahaye manages to reveal the true secrets of 42 in just under 3,000 words. Its most interesting quality? A stubborn refusal to yield to the 'sum of three cubes' problem. WARNING, heavy maths geekery ahead. SA
A masterclass in critical futures thinking. Laura Forlano says the promise of a better tomorrow is no excuse for the inequitable, unjust, and harmful deployment of technology today. The future is not made exclusively by white men in black T-shirts who give TED Talks. It's 'far more ornery and slippery than that.' Public Books
A powerful new consensus is emerging in the world of genetics and medicine: race really is a social construct. If racial categories were genetically distinct, certain genetic features should be unique. Instead, as we dive deeper into the human genome, we're learning the opposite. A better approach for medicine is "place, not race." Grow
Humankind
The Bridge of Brave Women
Meet Maida Bilal, a 40 year old single mother in Bosnia who led a group of women from her village in a 503-day blockade to save her local river.
Maida grew up in Kruščica, a village in the mountains west of Sarajevo, and her childhood was shaped by the civil war which claimed the life of her brother. She was drawn to activism from a young age as a way to channel her grief into positive action.
In July 2017 Maida was working part-time in financial administration, when she learned that heavy machinery was en route to her village to construct two dams and a hydropower-plant along the Kruščica River. Without any local consultation, Maida felt blindsided. The free-flowing river provided fresh drinking water for her village, critical habitat to wildlife and was an integral part of community life. She felt that "as a human being that I had to go out and fight for the river and for life in general.”
To access the site, construction workers needed to cross a small wooden bridge, so Maida organised 300 villagers, most of them women, to form a human blockade. The symbolic protest expanded into a much larger mission when the contractors refused to budge, and the woman were forced to guard the bridge 24 hours a day, in 8-hour shifts.
At dawn on August 24, 2017, a special police unit in full riot gear used brute force to clear the women from the bridge. Most of the women were harmed, and Maida was struck on the head, nearly knocked unconscious. Despite the trauma, Maida and her women remained on the bridge for a total of 503 days, through heat, rain, and the bitter Bosnian winters.
In between shifts, Maida founded Eko Bistro, a community group who engaged a layer to take on the local politicians and have the construction permits revoked. After a year of legal battles, Maida won her case and the permits for the dams were cancelled. The decision marked the first legal victory of its kind in Bosnia and on December 19, 2018, the women finally left the bridge.
Today the bridge is named “Bridge of the Brave Women of Kruščica” and Maida has expanded her fight to save the pristine waterways around her country.“The issue is not only that the river in my village was under attack, but that all wild rivers in this region are at risk. It’s very sad for me to see that rivers aren’t protected by constitutions, as they should be.”
Whew.
That ended up a lot longer than we anticipated. Well done on making it, thank you as always, we'll see you next week (we promise).
Much love,
Gus, Amy and the rest of the FC team
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