274: The Beautiful Confusion of the First Billion Years

This week's top stories

The United States designates a massive new marine sanctuary
A new 11,766-km² area off the Central California coast was officially designated the Chumash Heritage National Marine Sanctuary by NOAA last week. The third-largest in the nation, the sanctuary will prohibit new gas and oil exploration and is the first ever designed with the involvement of Indigenous groups.

India officially eliminates trachoma as a public health problem
India launched its first trachoma control project in 1963. In 2005, trachoma still accounted for 4% of all blindness cases in the country; by 2018, this had dropped to 0.008%. Globally, India joins 19 other countries that have been confirmed by WHO as having eliminated trachoma as a public health problem. WHO

Timor-Leste eliminates elephantiasis as a public health problem
Efforts to stop the spread of infection started in 2005 but were paused in 2007 because of funding constraints. The WHO helped start mass drug administration again in 2015, and the introduction of a new triple drug therapy was a gamechanger in 2019. It's the fifth country in the WHO Southeast Asia region to achieve this feat. WHO

AI gets its penicillin and X-ray moment
When the Swedish inventor Alfred Nobel wrote his will in 1895, he designated funds to reward those who ‘have conferred the greatest benefit to humankind.’ The resulting Nobel Prizes have since been awarded to the discoverers of penicillin, X-rays, and the structure of DNA—and, as of today, to two scientists who, decades ago, laid the foundations for modern artificial intelligence. The Atlantic 🔒

Global electric vehicle sales soared in September
Last month, a record-breaking 1.7 million all-electric and plug-in hybrid cars were sold globally, an increase of 30.5% year-on-year and 150,000 more compared to the previous record in December 2023. The first nine months of this year have seen 11.5 million EVs sold globally, up 22% compared to the same period last year. So much for the 'slowdown'. Inside EVs

Deforestation in the Amazon continues to fall
While fires rage in the Amazon due to the ongoing drought, deforestation remains near a six-year low. The most recent twelve-month total of land cleared was 4,191 km², a 30% decrease from the 6,029 km² recorded at the same time last year. Mongabay

Two big breakthroughs in cancer treatment
Doctors are hailing 'amazing' trial results that show a new drug combination stops the advance of lung cancer for over 40% longer than the standard treatment, as well as a 'remarkable' new treatment regime for cervical cancer that reduces the risk of dying by 40%, the biggest advance against the disease in 25 years.

The clean revolution is accelerating in the Global South
In 2024, 87% of Global South CapEx on electricity generation will flow into clean energy, and the IEA expects new solar and wind capacity to increase by 60%. Solar and wind generation is only five years behind the Global North, and electrification is at 75% of Global North levels—and growing faster. RMI

Global teen pregnancy rates have dropped by one-third since 2000
According to UN data, the birth rate for girls aged 15 to 19 has decreased significantly, from 64.5 live births per 1,000 girls in 2000 to 41.3 in 2023. Central and South Asia have witnessed an even greater decline, with rates falling by more than two-thirds. Our World In Data

India is finally becoming a clean energy superpower
For several years the country has fallen short of its proclaimed clean energy targets, but this year that's changed. Coal power is falling and wind and solar installations are on track for a record 34 GW by the end of the year. By just finishing clean energy projects currently being built, India will get most of the way to its 500-GW target for 2030. Bloomberg 🎁

James Webb Telescope data are revolutionising astronomy
Over star-studded slide decks and rounds of Pacifico beer, 100 or so astrophysicists recently exulted in new findings about the universe’s first billion years, an epoch that the James Webb Telescope is revealing in exquisite detail for the first time. 'We are knocking on the door of history.' Quanta

How's the biggest global election year in history going?
Sixty-seven countries with a total population of about 3.4 billion people have already held national elections this year. Another 440 million people will have their say before the end of 2024. With almost 90% of votes around the world cast and tallied, what's evident so far? The Economist 🎁

• Democracy has proved to be pretty resilient.
• Voter turnout has risen for the first time in two decades, signalling engagement by citizens in the political process.
• Efforts to undermine elections have mostly failed, and disinformation campaigns haven't made much of an impact.
• Voters have held leaders accountable, with a swing against incumbents in well over half of the democratic elections held so far this year.

If it bleeds it leads

This month the American Cancer Society released its biennial update of statistics on breast cancer among women in the United States. Breast cancer mortality—people dying from the disease—is down 44% since 1989, thanks to advances in early detection and treatment. That incredible progress has saved an estimated 517,900 lives. Amazing, right?

The report also showed that since 2010, breast cancer incidence—people diagnosed—has increased by an average of 1% per year, and by 1.4% for women under 50. This change is worrying, but it could be attributed to higher awareness about the disease and earlier diagnosis. It's also more than offset by the reassuring evidence that breast cancer has become far more treatable, and far fewer women are dying from it.

Guess what the headlines in all the major news publications were?

The media doesn't just have a bad news bias—it actively distorts stories to portray them in the worst possible light. In the case of cancer specifically, commercial outlets, social platforms, and even the cancer community itself continue to pump out alarmist content long past the point at which it's accurate.

Don't get me wrong, cancer is still a nasty piece of work. It's touched many of our lives, leaving pain and suffering in its wake. But our fear of it? That's gotten out of hand. A cancer diagnosis isn't the end of the road anymore. It's time our attitudes caught up with that reality.

Social progress

Problems shout, solutions whisper.
- David Bornstein

Global Fund partnership has saved 65 million lives since 2002
In 2023, 25 million people received antiretroviral therapy for HIV, 7.1 million were treated for TB, and 227 million mosquito nets were distributed. This marks the first year of full recovery from COVID-related disruptions. The Global Fund has reduced the combined death rate from AIDS, TB, and malaria by 61% since 2002. The Global Fight

Melinda French Gates launches a $250-million women’s health fund
This is part of a two-year, $1-billion commitment that the billionaire made in May to support women globally. Rejecting the traditional invitation-only philanthropy model, French Gates is issuing an open call to not-for-profits to apply for funding, with 100 NFPs expected to benefit from up to $5 million in funding each. AP

Americans are safer from gun violence than they have been in years 
We’ve reported on multiple datasets showing a decline in violent crime in the US. Here's one more: a new analysis shows that 2024 had the smallest summertime increase in all fatal and nonfatal gun injuries since the summer of 2018—25.7% compared to a 41.5% average between 2018 and 2023. American Progress

This finding is yet another sign that the nation has turned a corner on its approach to preventing violent crime and interpersonal gun violence, with some major U.S. cities now safer than they were before the pandemic.

Mozambique’s striking progress on vaccination coverage 
UNICEF and WHO data show that DTP3 coverage rose to 70% in 2023, just one year after plummeting to 55% due to COVID-related disruptions. Health workers are also holding three 'Big Catch-up' vaccination rounds in areas with the largest numbers of unvaccinated children. Gavi

Road fatalities in London drop to lowest recorded level
In 2023, the number of people killed or seriously injured on London's roads fell by 6% compared to 2022 and 30% compared to a decade ago. Recent OECD data show that UK road deaths have fallen from 8,000 annually in the 1970s to under 2,000 today, a 75% reduction. TFL

CAR success stories: saving lives, forests, and livelihoods 
From the Central African Republic, stories of delivering essential healthcare to nearly 475,000 women and children; strengthening local livelihoods in the Mbaéré-Bodingué National Park; providing 583,000 smallholder farmers with improved seeds, fertilizers, and tools; and a work scheme for 120,000 internally-displaced people. World Bank

Record-breaking number of same-sex marriages in Brazil
In 2023, over 13,000 same-sex marriages were celebrated, a 23.5% increase from 2022 and a 268% rise since 2013, when registry offices were first allowed to perform these marriages. Activists are now urging Congress to allow same-sex civil unions, with their #SayYes campaign garnering over 74,000 signatures to date. Fair Planet

All the evidence, everywhere, all at once
The Economic and Social Research Council, together with the Wellcome Trust, has pledged over $70 million to build giant ‘evidence banks’ for policymakers worldwide trying to solve complex issues. These banks are designed to contain 'everything the world knows about how to solve an important problem in one place'. Nature

Mexico preschool policy generating positive returns two decades later 
In the early 2000s, Mexico made preschool education mandatory for all children. New research has revealed lasting cognitive and non-cognitive benefits: children who attended pre-school had better attention spans, improved academic performance, and were 8.7% more likely to finish high school and 11.1% more likely to attend college compared to those who did not. VoxDev

Environmental victories

Australia's second-largest state to add new national parks
Queensland has established two new national parks, a new conservation park, and the state’s second special wildlife preserve, in addition to adding 186 km² to existing national and conservation parks. The move will ensure the conservation of wildlife habitats while providing recreational opportunities for Queenslanders. Queensland Government

A fishing refuge in Mexico helps the ecosystem and community recover
To fight illegal fishing, in 2019 the Celestún fishing community in Yucatan, Mexico, established a 324-km² Fishing Refuge Zone, the largest in the Gulf of Mexico. The refuge has helped overfished species like the sea cucumber recover and improved women's involvement in an industry traditionally dominated by men. Mongabay

African rhino population showing signs of recovery
While the outlook for the world’s five rhino species remains uncertain, the African rhino population, including both black and white species, increased by 2.4% at the end of 2023 to a total of 23,885. Poaching caused a 1% drop in the black rhino population, but from 2022 through 2023, white rhino numbers increased by 3.7%, to 17,464. IUCN

Good news for Florida manatees and California beavers
A proposed update to the manatee’s critical habitat would expand its area to more than 8,000 km² in Florida and add 315 km² in Costa Rica, and California has strengthened a Beaver Restoration Program to support beavers and their habitats, which will also help address flooding and drought and prevent wildfires.

Rwanda's capital city rehabilitates wetlands
A wetland rehabilitation project in the city of Kigali will complete the restoration of five wetlands by next September. By enhancing flood resilience, restoring natural ecosystems, and improving water management, the rehabilitated wetlands will benefit over 220,000 citizens. KT Press

Native bird numbers in Wellington soar
Wellington's community-driven pest-trapping schemes are working. Based on data from counting stations and observations from ornithologists and recreational birders, native bird encounters are up 55% since 2011. The most frequently counted species were the tūī, tauhou, riroriro, and pīwakawaka. RNZ

A nation of beekeepers helps pollinators thrive in Slovenia
With 11,000 beekeepers in a population of two million people, Slovenia has the highest number of beekeepers per capita in Europe. The country banned neonicotinoids in 2011 for their role in bee die-offs, paving the way for an EU-wide ban in 2018. Reasons to be Cheerful

Paris land use changes improve climate resiliency
Since 2004, 44 hectares of car parking in Paris have been converted to make bike lanes and racks, bus lanes, EV spots, wider sidewalks, and outdoor dining spaces, contributing to 90% of trips made via walking, biking, and transit. Another 45 hectares have been planted with 150,000 trees.

Clean energy

Five of the biggest coal plants in the US now have closure dates
Coal generated 16% of the country’s electricity last year, a decrease from about half a decade ago, but the largest coal plants have remained open. That could now be changing. Five (and maybe six) of the biggest ten plants now have closure dates, up from almost none in 2019. Inside Climate News

No new coal power plants for Malaysia
Southeast Asia isn't coming to the rescue of the coal industry. Malaysia's energy minister said last week, 'We are moving away from coal. Coal-fired generation will be gradually phased out, and no new coal power plants will be established... reducing coal dependency is critical to limiting global warming, and we are acting on that premise.' Malay Mail

Germany's clean energy transition defies the critics
If you've spent any time reading headlines about Germany's energy transition recently, you'd be forgiven for thinking it's gone into reverse. Nothing could be further from the truth. In the first nine months of this year, renewables accounted for a 65.9% share of net electricity generation. In 2017 it was just 36.6%. Energy Charts

UK begins slashing red tape for offshore wind
The first major economy to phase out coal plans to lead from the front on the next big issue (in Western countries): permitting reform. The government has pledged to rip up red tape and bureaucracy for offshore wind developers in support of its mission to turn the country into a ‘clean energy superpower’ by 2030. Renews

Paris to ban old ICE vehicles and build a whole lotta rail
From 1st January 2025, diesel vehicles older than 14 years and petrol vehicles older than 19 years will no longer be allowed to drive within Greater Paris on weekdays from 8 am to 8 pm. Meanwhile, the Paris Metro is about to get its biggest upgrade in decades: a new 200-km system with four new lines and 68 new stations.

Tanager-1 satellite has started identifying climate villains
At the end of August we reported on the launch of Tanager-1, a satellite designed to pick up methane emissions across the planet. It's started releasing results, showing that nearly half of super-emitting events were previously unknown. Once identified, these can be flagged for state agencies and operators and mitigated. PR Newswire

Chinese firm reveals monster new offshore wind turbine
China’s largest wind turbine maker, Dongfang Electric, has shocked the offshore wind industry by rolling out a 26-MW new turbine. That's radically larger than anything previously available, almost a third bigger than the current record holder of 18 MW. This wasn't supposed to happen for years. China Daily

First, electric cars. Next, electric factories?
It's the next big frontier after power and transport—the electrification of industry, especially the generation of heat for steel, chemicals, and cement. Until recently, if you wanted to get to 1,000°C instead of 100°C, there were few electric options, but that's now changing. Great overview here in The Economist 🎁

Scientific progress

Just a kilometre so above the surface of the Earth, having fallen back from the edge of space, and still traveling at roughly the speed of sound, the 71 metre-long steel cylinder, bigger than the fuselage of a Boeing 747, relit 13 of its 33 engines. Seconds later, having cut its speed to a couple of hundred kilometres per hour, it turned most of them off, leaving it balanced on the thrust of just three engines like a broom handle on a finger. The Economist 🔐

The most-ambitious-ever hunt for life beyond Earth
NASA’s Europa Clipper has embarked on its long voyage to Jupiter, where it will investigate Europa, a moon with an enormous subsurface ocean that may have conditions to support life. The probe will travel 2.9 billion km, with arrival expected in 2030. The New Yorker 🔒

Louise Prockter, the chief scientist of space exploration at the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 'was thirty years old when she first learned about Europa. She was involved in a seventeen-year struggle to win scientific support for a mission there. Then came a decade-long engineering effort to build a suitable spacecraft. Even now, Clipper will need almost six years to reach Jupiter and another four to study Europa—at which point Prockter will be around seventy.'

China's airship harvests wind power at record height
Developed by engineers in Beijing, a new helium-filled blimp recently ascended to 500 metres above ground in the city of Jingmen, generating over 50 kW of wind power. The operation broke records for both the maximum flying height and power generated by an airborne turbine. China Daily

Australian firm takes big step towards solar windows
Perth-based ClearVue just won its first order of solar cladding, consisting of more than 200 architectural black photovoltaic modules that will cover a building in Perth, expected to be installed next year. The technology steers incoming light towards the edges of the glass panel, where it is collected by monocrystalline silicon-based PV modules. Clean Technica

Embryo models advance understanding of the first stages of human life
Embryo models—that is, embryos created using stem cells—have seen remarkable progress in recent years, providing a real alternative for studying some of the hardest problems in human development, such as what causes miscarriages and developmental disorders. However, as the science advances, it's starting to raise increasingly thorny moral questions. The Atlantic 🔒

Graphene finally coming of age
Since its discovery 20 years ago, billions of dollars of funding have flowed to graphene in a global race to exploit its peerless properties. A decade ago, it seemed like it was the subject of every second article on futurist forums, but for all its allure, graphene had drawbacks. Today, we're finally starting to see commercial applications. Science 🔒

The best bits of the internet (Gus)

Three pieces on the subject of optimism, from three very different points of view. First, a new interview with Kevin Kelly on the power of radical optimism, and why he thinks optimism is not just a personality trait, but a choice. Then Scott Galloway on the idea of optimism as a default setting: 'My point is that it’s easy to make lists of problems. Of everything that could go wrong or get worse. I could do it with my eyes closed, and so could you. It’s much harder to have the imagination and the courage to talk openly about what might go right.' And finally, a warning from Estefanía Grijota about the dangers of excessive optimism, reminding us there's a fine line between choosing it and forcing it.

This makes me feel a little bit sad: it looks like the whole idea of 'blue zones' (places where people live unusually long) was wrong. The reported longevity in these places seems to be due primarily to bad record keeping and fraud. Cremieux Recueil

Films made with artificial intelligence are getting very, very good.

Mandy Brown muses on the challenges of finding an audience in 2024. 'Now if you want to find your readers, there aren’t many options beyond the Nazi platforms, or the cool kids platform, or the desperate workers platform, or the anarchist anti-platform.' Her answer to the problem, inspired by The Mushroom at the End of the World: what if we imagined intellectual life as a peasant woodland, a source of many useful products emerging in unintentional design? A Working Library

The year is 2149 and people mostly live their lives 'on rails.'
The year is 2149 and everyone pretends there aren’t any computers anymore.
The year is 2149 and the world’s decisions are made by gods.
The year is 2149 and the aliens are here.
The year is 2149 and every child has a troll.
MIT Tech Review 🔒

Eight months ago we reported on a new, genetically-engineered houseplant called a firefly petunia, which glows in the dark. Rachel Ehrenberg, an editor at Knowable Magazine, bought one.

Quantum scientist Michael Nielsen went looking for the source of the Einstein quote 'Imagination is more important than knowledge' and found it in a 1929 interview in The Saturday Evening Post.

That's it for this edition! Hope you enjoyed it—we'll see you next week. Progress is possible.

With love,

Gus and Amy