238: The Kid in the Omelas Hole

Plus, ancient scroll magic, inflatable space stations, the problem with doom-saying, and good news on gun violence in America, crime in Mexico, ocean conservation in Spain and plummeting carbon emissions in the EU.

238: The Kid in the Omelas Hole
Credit: J.R. Bolt
Plus, ancient scroll magic, inflatable space stations, the problem with doom-saying, and good news on gun violence in America, crime in Mexico, ocean conservation in Spain and plummeting carbon emissions in the EU.
This is the premium edition of Future Crunch, a weekly roundup of good news, mind-blowing science, and the best bits of the internet. If someone forwarded this, you can subscribe here. One third of your subscription fee goes to charity. You can buy a gift subscription here.

Good news you probably didn't hear about


Europe is slowly winning the war on cancer. New research shows a decline in cancer mortality rates of 6.5% among men and 4.3% among women between 2018 and 2024 (estimated). An estimated 6.2 million cancer deaths have now been avoided in the EU and 1.3 million in the United Kingdom since 1988. Annals of Oncology

Age-standardized cancer mortality rate trends from 1970 to 2019 and predicted rates for 2024 with 95% prediction intervals, for all cancers combined and both sexes (left) and for major cancer sites in men (center) and women (right), in the EU.

Zambia’s parliament has passed landmark legislation setting the marriageable age at 18, without exception, for all marriages, including customary marriages, representing a significant step in the nation’s commitment to eradicating child marriage. This is a big deal for a country that is home to a staggering 1.7 million child brides, 400,000 of whom were married before age 15. Equality Now

Zimbabwe has raised the age of consent from 16 to 18 years, with violators now liable to spend up to ten years in jail. Data suggest that over a third of girls experience sexual violence before the age of 18.'This will contribute to a reduction of sexual abuse of children, which continues to be a concern in Zimbabwe.' Herald

Senegal just installed a new water pipeline that will bring clean drinking water to 100,000 households on the outskirts of Mbacké, the country's most populous city, and in Mozambique, aid agencies just provided funding for an expansion of water and sanitation services to at least 325,000 people, as well as 90 schools and clinics. 

Mexico is getting a handle on crime after some of the most violent years in its history. Homicides dropped by 4.18% in 2023, marking the third consecutive year of decline; rates of femicide have dropped by 38.6% under the current government; and the last 12 months have also seen declines in human trafficking (39.3%), financial crimes (25.9%), and organized crime (16.8%). La Prensa Latina

Secretary of Security and Civil Protection, Rosa Icela Rodríguez, presenting data on crime in 2023. These numbers refer to the average number of murders per day.

In India, the number of women enrolling in higher education increased by 32% between 2015 and 2022, from 15.7 million to over 20 million. There has also been a notable increase in enrolment across all levels of education for female students from scheduled castes, increasing from 21 million in 2015 to 31 million in 2022. Economic Times

Parisians voted in a referendum last Sunday in favour of subjecting large SUVs to a threefold increase in parking charges as the French capital presses on with long-term plans to become a fully bikeable city. The new measure will triple parking fees for cars of 1.6 tonnes and more to 18 euros an hour in order to discourage 'bulky, polluting' cars. Reuters

Parking reform is only partly about parking. Over the past decade, US cities like Minneapolis, San Francisco, and Austin have eliminated parking space mandates in order to reduce car dependency, create public and green spaces, and lower housing costs. Reducing cars delivers big benefits for cities—parking occupies a double-digit share of land in most metro areas. Yale360

Older Americans are now significantly less lonely than they were three years ago; a recent peer-reviewed study reports that middle-aged Americans describe themselves as less lonely than 20 years ago, and while loneliness is more pervasive among younger Americans, there too, the rates have also plummeted since 2020.

In a landmark ruling that could significantly impact reproductive rights in Pennsylvania, the state's Supreme Court has declared the 1982 Abortion Control Act, which barred Medicaid from covering most abortions, as unconstitutional. The court’s decision, issued last week, underscores the fundamental right to reproductive autonomy and serves as a victory for advocates of abortion rights.

Poland's new ruling coalition is looking to undo the restrictive measures on the morning-after pill that the previous government introduced in 2017; in El Salvador, a victory for women who were jailed under the country’s draconian anti-abortion laws, the result of the tireless work of Salvadoran feminist movements. 

New research has shown that the FDA's approval of over-the-counter emergency contraception had an unintended but positive side effect for America’s hospitals. Emergency rooms saw 96% fewer visits from women seeking emergency contraception after the morning-after pill became easily available to adults in 2006. JAMA

Data from 2006 to 2020 from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample, a database of 2,006,582,771 weighted US ED visits. Source: Vogt, Chibber, Jiang et al. (2024)
More good news you didn't hear about

Gun violence experienced the largest decline on record in the United States last year (why is this not a bigger story?). Starting this month, 45 companies in Germany are testing a four-day workweek. Madagascar is starting to take serious steps towards controlling a parasitic disease called porcine cysticercosis. Lebanon's parliament has agreed to consider a landmark law to prevent child marriage. New York is buying up millions of dollars of medical debt in an effort to help as many as half a million people. Austin gave poor families a basic income for a year and it changed their lives. Cambodia just completed its largest-ever government-led mass dog vaccination campaign. All major sectors of the US economy have now seen employment fully recover from the pandemic. Cameroon used to have 12 students for every textbook in 2016; it had three textbooks for every two students in 2023. The South American nation of Guyana is getting close to eliminating filaria, leprosy, and other 'neglected diseases.' The number of teens in America who have tried smoking has decreased fourfold since the 1990s (rebellion just ain't what it used to be).


🤦
CORRECTION

In our last edition we said that Lao's maternal mortality rate fell by 250% between 2000 and 2020. This is obviously impossible and we feel silly for making such an obvious mistake, even if the original error was the UNFPA's. We should do better at double-checking. Lao's maternal mortality did drop from 579 per 100,000 births to 126 per 100,000 during that period, which is incredible, but not an impossibility. Thanks to readers Gé van Gasteren and Dieter Suter for keeping us honest.

If it bleeds, it leads


Ten people died from unprovoked shark attacks globally in 2023, a slight uptick over the five-year average. This makes sharks less dangerous than lawn mowers, ladders, champagne corks, jet skis, and lightning strikes.

Guess which one of those things got an entire article in ABC News?


Good news for the planet


Over the past 25 years, small towns across Bolivia have protected over 100,000 km2 of the Amazon, creating a 'conservation mosaic' almost the size of Iceland. Recently, the community of Sena has added another piece to the puzzle with the Gran Manupare Integrated Management Natural Area, 4526 km2 of lowland rainforest that is home to the endangered giant otter. Conservation International

Piece by piece, we are knitting together the fabric of conservation in the Amazon. Local communities have kept their eyes on the prize. They are having a big impact on the Amazon, for the benefit of us all.
Eduardo Forno, Vice President, Conservation International - Bolivia

Spain has designated seven new marine protected areas across the country’s three marine regions: the Mediterranean, Macaronesia, and the Atlantic. The designation will increase Spain’s area of ocean protection from 12% to 21%, safeguarding the habitat for threatened species, including deep seamounts and a large migratory corridor for birds. Oceana

Canada will provide federal funding to 42 Indigenous-led conservation projects across Nova Scotia, Quebec, Ontario, and Saskatchewan, adding to the $202 million already allocated to Indigenous communities. In Bangladesh, Indigenous communities have reversed the decline of the endangered putitor mahseer fish by protecting the headwater forests that support breeding and population growth. 

A great example of how saving one species can have a domino effect on the restoration of a whole ecosystem. In California’s Monterey Bay, efforts to bolster sea otter populations are saving local salt marshes because the otters feast on the burrowing crabs that cause erosion. The sea otters have consumed enough of the crabs to slow the erosion almost to a halt. ABC

A Southern Sea Otter floats on its back in Elkhorn Slough near Monterey, California. Credit: Getty Images

The first-ever snow leopard survey in India has confirmed the country is home to 718 big cats, roughly 10-15% of the global population. The survey reported that understanding the precise population is important because as the apex predator, the leopard indicates the health of—and challenges facing—the entire Himalayan ecosystem. BBC

Ecosia, the German-based search engine that uses advertising revenue to fight climate change, has reached an impressive milestone of 200 million trees planted. The organisation has also invested in climate tech solutions, set up an incubator for regenerative agriculture, and has created enough solar plants since 2020 to power all Ecosia searches twice over.

California’s landmark plastic reduction law, SB 54, will dramatically alter how plastic and packaging waste is managed. All single-use packaging and plastic food service-ware will have to be recyclable or compostable by 2032, with a 65% recycling rate for these materials. Companies that don’t comply will face steep fines up to $50,000 per day for each violation—and it's already working. EHN

In 2022, Yvon Chouinard, the founder of outdoor apparel brand Patagonia, declared that all future profits of the company would be used to protect the environment. Since that date, $71 million of earnings have funded the protection of 658 km2, and there are plans to protect another 13,000 km2, much of it in Australia and Indonesia. NYT

Plan A: Raise taxes on hedge fund billionaires to fund climate action. Plan B: Sell vests to hedge fund bros and use the profits to fund climate action.
More music for those who will listen

Chile and Palau have become the first two of 80 countries required to ratify the UN’s landmark High Seas Treaty. New Zealand will be the first country to ban the use of forever chemicals in cosmetics from 2026. After a 30-year absence, the endangered Guam Kingfisher will soon return to the wild. The Pench Tiger Reserve has become India’s first Dark Sky Reserve (the lack of light pollution makes it ideal for astronomy enthusiasts). Against all odds, it looks like jaguars are making a return to the United States. Turtle nests have been found off the coast of Cambodia, sparking hopes for endangered hawksbill and green turtles. The UK is delivering on measures to protect its oceans with a permanent closure of the sandeel fisheries and a targeted ban on bottom trawling in an additional 13 MPAs. An enzyme used in laundry detergent has been found to break down single-use plastics within 24 hours, 84 times faster than the 12-week-long industrial composting process. Nouabalé-Ndoki National Park in the DRC just marked its first year without any elephant poaching.


Saving the world is cheaper than ruining it


Solar and wind are now the fastest-growing energy sources in human history, adding more energy supply, more quickly, than anything our species has invented before. Solar installations are up a thousand-fold in two decades. The trillion-dollar question is whether the exponential shapes of those two curves will continue. If they do, everything changes.

Just one of the 200 incredible slides in Nat Bullard's deck. Required reading for anyone in the climate and energy space—there's enough in there for ten presentations.

Conditions are ripe for another mind-blowing year for solar in 2024, after module prices fell 51% last year (compared to 11% in 2022). Solar firms are locked in a game of chicken now as manufacturers drive prices lower and lower, thinning out margins as the race to decarbonise the world's energy systems heats up. Bloomberg

Last year China pulled off one of the most incredible industrial feats in human history, adding over 200 GW of solar generation and 300 GW of solar manufacturing. Some (Chinese) analysts are now predicting up to 5,000 GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030. Paired with storage, that would replace all baseload coal. Han Feizi

Last year was the year that the clean energy transition got real in Europe, as power sector emissions fell by almost a fifth in 2023. Crazy stats: coal power down 26%, fossil gas down 15%, and renewables now account for 44% of all power. The world's third-largest emitter is now firmly on its way to transitioning from a fossil-based system to one where wind and solar are the backbone. Ember

The cause of the fall in coal+gas was roughly 40% due to rising wind+solar generation, 20% due to a rebound in hydro generation, and 40% due to fall in electricity demand. Dave Jones

Germany's lignite power production fell to the lowest level since 1963 last year, while hard coal power production dropped even further, to its lowest level since 1955. On the flip side, the country is heading towards the highest number of people employed in renewables-linked jobs since 2010, a trend bolstered by demand for heat pumps and installation of solar panels.

For more than six hours last Sunday, nearly 80% of Texas’ electricity came from solar, wind, or nuclear power, a phenomenon that is likely to become more common as the power grid of the largest-carbon-emitting state in America accelerates its shift to zero-emissions power generation. Houston Chronicle 🗄️

Australian renewable projects are being built faster. Taking an onshore wind farm from idea to reality now takes about 53 months, substantially faster than wind farms that were started before 2016, which took more than 88 months.  Solar projects now take about 41 months, less than half the time they used to take before 2011. Conversation

This story is wild. India Railways has electrified 94% of all its lines, thanks to a huge electrification acceleration in the last decade. Around 40,000 km of railway has been electrified since 2014, versus 21,801 in all the years prior to that, and it looks like India will achieve 100% electrification within a few months. It's already the country's largest consumer of electricity. Energy Monitor

In 2023, more than 8 million plug-in electric cars were sold in China, including 5.3 million all-electric vehicles. That's up roughly 46% year-over-year and represents about 37% of the total market (compared to 30% in 2022, 15% in 2021, and 6.3% in 2020). Inside EVs

In 2023, more than 3 million plug-in electric cars were sold in Europe, including 1.8 million all-electric vehicles. That's 16% more than in 2022 and amounts to nearly one in four vehicles sold. The top three brands were Tesla, BMW, and Volkswagen. Inside EVs

This is really good news. Investment in global power grids jumped 5% in 2023 from the previous year to $310 billion, and for once the US led China, spending $87 billion. China followed with $79 billion, mostly for long-distance transmission, and Europe’s investment reached $60 billion, with a greater share of spending on digitalization and upgrading high-voltage transmission networks. BNEF

Michael Barnard says that hydrogen is not a solution, it's a scam by the gas mafia. It’s already lost light vehicles, buses are a foregone conclusion, there will be no trucking hydrogen, grid storage is a dead end, and even in aviation and shipping, the physics just don't work out. It might have some applications for industrial heat. That's it. Clean Technica

Credit: Bart Generator
What's the opposite of doom-scrolling?

China's wind and solar energy curtailment (the percentage of generation that gets 'discarded'), has fallen drastically in the last seven years. The US government is planning to impose a fee of up to $1,500 on every excess ton of methane emissions. Ethiopia says it's going to ban the import of any cars that aren't electric. Apparently nobody told Kia about the EV slowdown—US sales were up 57% in January. BYD didn't get the memo either. Neither did Toyota, which is investing $1.3 billion into a factory for their first US-made electric vehicle. Volvo is launching an intracity heavy truck that only comes as an all-electric option. Electric vehicles in the United Kingdom are already saving over 900 million litres of fuel per year. Electric vehicles now comprise 93% of all new vehicles sold in Norway (a decade ago it was 5%). Guess what the most-loved car brand in the United States is?


Indistinguishable from magic


A few times a year, you get a technology story that really does feel like magic, and this is one of them. A volunteer army of nerds, with help from a bored venture capitalist, has pulled off the astonishing trick of using artificial intelligence to 'unravel' and decipher the contents of the Herculaneum scrolls. We're using the gift link on this because it's the best thing you'll read this week. Bloomberg 🎁

Have you heard of Sierra Space? They're a private company working with NASA on inflatable space habitats. Last month they performed a burst test of the full-sized version of their Large Integrated Flexible Environment (LIFE) module, and it made it to 77 psi, nearly 27% above NASA’s recommended level of 60.8 psi, itself four times above the module's maximum operating pressure. Space News

This is what it looks like when an inflatable space station module explodes. 

The first metal 3D printer is on its way to the International Space Station. There are already several plastic printers on board which have been used to replace or repair parts, but not everything can be made from plastic. Astronauts should now be able to directly manufacture tools such as wrenches, load-bearing structural parts, or mounting interfaces connecting several parts together. Airbus

Using CRISPR technology, scientists in Israel have succeeded in growing tomatoes that consume less water without compromising yield. They targeted a gene known as ROP9 in order to cause a partial closure of the stomata during midday, when the rate of water loss from the plants is at its highest, without any adverse effect on photosynthesis, crop quantity, or quality. Phys.org

What's better than a solar panel? A hydropanel, designed by a billion-dollar company in Arizona, that uses sunlight to power fans that pull air into the device, which contains a desiccant material which absorbs and traps moisture. Each panel produces around 4-5 litres of drinking water per day, costs about $2,000, and lasts at least 15 years. BBC

So solar punk right now. Credit: BBC

Chinese scientists have assembled the world’s most detailed human genome, sequenced from the DNA of a 'healthy young' male in the Chinese province of Shaanxi. It's also the first complete Han Chinese genome. Unlike the previous most detailed genome, known as T2T-CHM13 (which was a 'haploid genome,' containing only one set of chromosomes), this one is from an actual person, containing both sets of chromosomes (including the Y chromosome). SCMP 🗄️

A pharmaceutical company in Boston just announced successful Phase 3 results from a trial involving 1,118 people for an experimental drug that relieves moderate to severe pain, blocking pain signals before they can get to the brain. It works only on peripheral nerves (outside the brain and the spinal cord), meaning it avoids opioids’ potential to lead to addiction. If this hits the market it will be huge. NYT

Japanese architect Junya Ishigami has unveiled the one-kilometre-long Zaishui Art Museum on a lake in China. The 20,000 m2 linear museum extends from one side of the lake to the other, almost covering its entire diameter. Glass panelling gives visitors views of the lake, and gaps allow water to flow into the building, submerging parts of the floor. Dezeen

According to Ishigami, the aim of the project was to address how Chinese architecture is generally 'closed off' from the environment. 'From the tiniest abode to the most monumental edifice, everything feels in some way defensive. There's an air of resignation, of a forced severing from the environment, a compulsion to close off.' Instead, Ishigami believes the key is to view architecture as a 'gentle giant' of the environment and search for a new relationship between the natural and the man-made.

The information highway is still super


Why don't we just kill the kid in the Omelas Hole? 😱

People are worried that AI is going to take everyone’s jobs, but we've been here before. While today’s technologies look very different from those of the past, worries over the future of jobs are not new and are best addressed by applying an understanding of economics, rather than conjuring up genies and monsters. David Rotman, Editor-at-large at MIT Tech Review, argues that the end-of-work meme is a distraction, and that the more important work is to figure out the best way to use AI to expand the economy and create new jobs.

Have you ever heard of something in the brain known as the default mode network? It's a collection of brain regions that become active when we're not focused on the outside world. Discovered over 20 years ago, it's engaged during mind-wandering, daydreaming, and introspection, suggesting that even when we’re at rest, our brain is hard at work. While this may seem like a grab bag of unrelated aspects of cognition, new theories suggest that all of these functions may be helpful in constructing a coherent self-narrative. Quanta

In case you've been living under a rock and haven't seen this yet—Tracy Chapman came out of semi-retirement and sang a duet of 'Fast Car' with country singer Luke Combs at the Grammys this week. Just watch it.

David Brooks on why doomsaying can become a self-fulfilling prophecy:
In this way, pessimism becomes a membership badge—the ultimate sign that you are on the side of the good. If your analysis is not apocalyptic, you’re naive, lacking in moral urgency, complicit with the status quo. [...] This negativity saturates everything. As The Atlantic’s Derek Thompson noted recently, more than 5,500 podcasts now have the word trauma in their title. Political life is seen through a negative valence. A YouGov survey of 33,000 Americans found that both sides of the political debate believe they are losing. Liberals think the country is moving right; conservatives are convinced that the country is moving left. Whatever your perspective, everything appears to be going downhill.

British adventurer Alastair Humphreys got stuck at home after starting a family, and after the never-ending merry-go-round of childcare and chores settled him into a less-adventurous neck of the woods, he decided to do something about it. A wonderful, inspiring ode to the joy of the local and the magic of the little moments. A single small map really can be enough for a lifetime. Neoma

'Instructions for living a life:
Pay attention.
Be astonished.
Tell about it.
'
—Mary Oliver

Alastair Humphreys

That's it for this edition, thanks for reading! We'll see you next week.

With love,

Gus and Amy


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