210: Seaflooding

Plus, alien space parts, sleeping beauties, and good news on poverty reduction, sanitation in the Ivory Coast, human rights in Romania, global clean energy investment, solar in China, and native logging in Victoria

210: Seaflooding
This is the members-only edition of Future Crunch, a weekly roundup of good news, mind-blowing science, and the best bits of the internet. If someone forwarded this, you can subscribe here. One third of our subscription fees goes to charity. You can buy a gift subscription here. Check out our merchandise here.

We're launching a podcast 


We're doing it. After spending a lot of time thinking about the follow-up to our Humankind project, we realised that the obvious answer was to go deeper. We want to have conversations with the incredible people that we found, to hear their stories first-hand. This provides us with the perfect excuse.

The podcast is going to be called Hope Is A Verb, and the first episode will be released on the 16th June 2023. We're going to be introducing the unknown heroes who are rolling up their sleeves to stitch the world back together, pioneering new stories of human progress and restoring our planet. It's going to be great, and we can't wait to share it with you.

You can listen to the trailer here, and subscribe wherever you listen to your podcasts.

Good news you probably didn't hear about


The World Bank says that global poverty reduction efforts are back on track. After the severe setbacks of 2020, a majority of low and middle income countries have seen poverty decline again, and more than half are now on course to reach a lower poverty rate in 2023 than in 2019.

Dengue cases have fallen to their lowest level in 20 years after mosquitoes infected with virus-blocking bacteria were released across Colombia’s Aburrá Valley. It's the largest release of Wolbachia mosquitos ever, causing incidence to fall by 94% across the cities of Medellín, Bello and Itagüí, home to more than three million people. Telegraph

The Ivory Coast has made substantial progress on sanitation. Access has increased from 22% in 2011 to 56% in 2021, and the government just announced plans to spend nearly €840 million on sanitation and drainage projects over the next seven years, about five times as much as it did between 2013 and 2022. Afrik21

Did you know that Rwanda has one of the most successful public health programs in the world? Life expectancy increased from 49.7 years in 2001 to 69.6 in 2022, over 90% of the population has health insurance, thousands of new clinics have been built in the last two years, and it's on track to meet all the MDGs on maternal mortality, malaria, tuberculosis, and AIDS.

Yes, everything in America is awful, apart from the fact that it's on the verge of one of the most important public health victories of the 21st century, workers are the happiest they've been since the 1980s, the unemployment rate for Black workers has fallen to its lowest level on record, Rhode Island just became the sixth state to make lunch free for all students, reading scores in the Deep South are soaring, Vermont is spending hundreds of millions of dollars on making childcare more affordable, and Minnesota just concluded one of the most progressive and transformative legislative sessions in US history.

The world is getting safer. The World Bank has released its latest data on homicides, updated to 2021. Every region of the world, except the USA and Latin America, has seen murder rates decline in the last decade. Among OECD members, 20 countries now have rates below one per 100,000, compared with 15 countries ten years ago.

Canada's poverty rate fell to 7.4% in 2021, despite pandemic benefits ending. This is down from 10.3% in 2019, and nearly half the rate in 2015. In 2021, there were almost 2.3 million fewer Canadians living in poverty compared to 2015, including 653,000 fewer children, 11,000 fewer seniors, and 556,000 fewer persons with a disability. Statistics Canada

In 2018, Sierra Leone made school free for all students, outlawed corporal punishment, and dedicated a fifth of its national budget to teacher pay, school renovation and other education expenses. Although there are still problems, the result has been a 50% increase in enrolment and a dramatic improvement in the quality of education, with impoverished children benefiting the most. NYT

Uzbekistan recently concluded a massive vaccination drive against measles, reaching 98.4% of the country's 3.3 million children; the Philippines has vaccinated eight million children against measles and polio this year; and last week, Malawi kicked off a campaign to vaccinate nine million children against typhoid, measles, rubella, and polio.

A big win for human rights in Romania, after the European Court of Human Rights ruled that its government has violated the right to family life by not giving same sex couples legal recognition. After a three-month period for appeals, the ruling will stand, leading to Romania being required to legalise same-sex civil unions. France24

Earlier this week, Cambodia began its largest-ever canine rabies vaccination drive, with over 100 volunteers, officials and animal welfare workers aiming to vaccinate 100,000 dogs in Phnom Penh in just ten days. It's going to make a big difference–Cambodia has one of the world's highest death rates from the disease. Dogs Today

The only home we've ever known


The EU's highest decision making body just gave the final go-ahead for a new rule designed to stop the import of any products that destroy forests. The cut-off date has been backdated, meaning that only products that have been produced on land that has not been deforested or degraded after 31 December 2020 will be allowed to be imported to or exported from the EU.

China's Hebei province has 278 protected areas covering 14,034 km2, equalling 7.43% of its total land mass. Those reserves are home to 40 species of wild animals under China's first- or second-class national protection, including the North China Leopard, whose numbers are steadily increasing. China Daily

The United Kingdom has closed two loopholes in its conservation and animal rights laws. No new licences will be issued for animal testing of chemicals used exclusively as cosmetics ingredients, after exceptions were granted between 2019 and 2022, and a ban on ivory from hippopotamuses, orcas and walruses has been added to the 2018 Ivory Act.

A big win from our own backyard! The state of Victoria has announced that the logging of native forests will stop at the end of this year. This one's personal–we've attended some of those protests, and we can't believe it's actually happening. The announcement includes significant funding for a just transition for forestry workers. ABC

The only home we've ever known. Credit: ABC/Brendan Esposito

The US government has announced a $62.5 million plan, primarily to hire biologists to help 32 threatened and endangered species currently listed under the Endangered Species Act. This comes on top of more than $2 billion that has been set aside under the Inflation Reduction Act to restore the country's lands and waters. US Fish and Wildlife Service

Three First Nations tribes in Minnesota have made a first-of-its-kind agreement giving them a greater voice in managing more than three million acres of land ceded to the federal government in 1854. 'This is really us standing shoulder to shoulder with the bands, knowing we're going to face issues and making sure we're having the right conversations early and together.' Star Tribune

Jamaica's plastic ban, implemented three years ago, has largely eliminated plastic straws and bags, as well as styrofoam boxes and cups, and reduced plastic waste by several million tonnes. 'It has been a huge victory, it triggered a lot of consciousness, it triggered a lot of action.' A new round of fines is now being planned to address leakage and shut down loopholes. Radio Jamaica

Another week, another river restoration. This time, it's Toronto's Don River, which was pronounced dead in 1969. Half a century later, it's roaring back to life. Beavers, mink, eagles, deer and coyote are returning, its waters are becoming cleaner, and billions are being spent to restore a body of water that was despised and feared for decades. Guardian

The Don Valley park and lower Don River trail in Toronto. Credit: Jim Feng

Brazil’s environmental regulator is beginning to flex its muscle, suggesting a new direction under the Lula government. It just rejected a licence for an offshore oil drilling project near the mouth of the Amazon, proposed by state-run oil company Petrobras, after a nearly nine-year campaign by activists. AP

Oregon has became the tenth state in the US to ban polystyrene. Starting in 2025, the new law prohibits the production, sale, and distribution of polystyrene cups, takeout food containers, and even coolers and packing peanuts. The state government has also banned PFAS, 'forever chemicals,' from being added to plates, bowls, cups, and other foodware. One Green Planet

The southern river terrapin, a critically endangered species found in three countries, Cambodia, Indonesia and Malaysia, is recovering thanks to a breeding program in Cambodia that's been running for three years. This year, 122 turtles were successfully hatched, and officials say they expect an increase to 200 next year. Phnom Penh Post

Minnesota just banned the commercial collection of wild turtles, meaning tens of thousands of the animals will now be saved from becoming food, traditional Asian medicines or pets. 'This ban is a big victory for all of us who care about the health of our state’s wildlife and waterways.' US Centre for Biological Diversity

Last year, Panama passed a law guaranteeing the rights of nature. That law is now being used to protect sea turtles in some of the world's most important nesting spots, giving them the right to an environment free of pollution and other detrimental human impacts, and with enough specificity that those rights can be enforced. AP

A Panamanian border officer stands guard as members of The Leatherback Project study the contents of a nest on a beach near in Armila, Panama, on Sunday, 21 May 2023. Sea turtles in Panama now have legal rights, a change that represents a different way of thinking about how to protect wildlife. (AP Photo/Arnulfo Franco)

Saving the world is cheaper than ruining it


A major shift is taking place in global energy. Five years ago, for every dollar invested in fossil fuels, the same went to clean energy. Since then, a big gap has opened up. This year, for every $1.00 invested in fossil fuels, $1.70 will go to clean energy, led by solar, which in 2023, for the first time ever, will attract more capital than oil. FT

Most of this is because of what's happening in China, easily the most under-appreciated climate story in the world right now. The country is currently installing 12 GW of solar a month, up from 7 GW a month in 2022, and is on track to reach 154GW by the end of 2023. That's more than the total solar installed in the United States, in a single year. Bloomberg

With a little back-of-the-envelope math, that means we could hit 1 GW a day globally this year. Some context:

1 GW per year in 2004
1 GW per month in 2010
1 GW per week in 2016
1 GW per day in 2023

Many of our readers may have seen recent reports that temperatures are on track to breach 1.5°C warming this decade. What you may not have seen is new research showing that if every country meets their medium- and long-term climate commitments, we should be able to limit warming to between 1.7°C and 1.8°C. Guess which one of these stories got more media attention?

India is on track to meet its clean energy targets. Installed renewable capacity will reach 174 GW in 2023, accounting for about 37% of total energy supply, and is projected to hit 280 GW by 2025. In the space of a few years, the country has become a front-runner in the global renewable energy market. Economic Times

Last week Vietnam approved a long-anticipated $134 billion plan to slash its use of coal-fired electricity by the end of the decade. Under the blueprint, coal generation will drop to 19% of power supply by 2030, from almost half now, and the aim is then to get to zero by the middle of the century. Bloomberg

Renewables are having a great spring in Europe. Solar and wind produced more than half of Portugal’s electricity for the first time in April; Spain managed to power 100% of its grid for nine hours with renewables; and Finland and Belgium have also broken energy records. 'The lightning pace of deployment, especially of solar, promises many more records to come this summer.' Euronews

A Kenyan company that runs a pay-as-you-go-model for solar panels has raised over $250 million in one of the largest-ever fundraisings by an African technology startup. M-Kopa, which also runs projects to finance electric motorbikes, says the money will help it expand and acquire up to 100,000 customers a month. FT

Credit: Stanley Green

The campaign to stop the $5 billion East African Crude Oil Pipeline is working. Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation, one of the project's key financial advisors and joint lead arranger, has pulled out. This follows a similar recent announcement by South Africa's Standard Bank, one of the project's other lead financiers.

You all know the drill by now: transmission, baby, transmission. California's electric grid operator just approved a $7.3 billion plan for 45 new power transmission projects over the next decade and has made it easier for new power plants in high-priority areas to connect to the grid. The plan will support the development of more than 40 GW of new generation. Reuters

China has become the world's biggest car exporter, overtaking Japan. Part of the reason is the Russia sanctions, which have caused Russia to start buying its cars from China, but the main driver has been the massive shift in the global auto industry, from internal combustion to electric vehicles. BBC

Remember the story a few weeks ago about the new battery from the world's biggest battery maker, CATL? We said it was a gamechanger, double the density of anything else on the market, opening up the possibility of 1,500 km EV ranges and electric aviation. Here are some more details on the 'condensed matter battery' from Inside Climate News.

Five years ago, when I talked to experts about tipping points in the shift to EVs, they were looking to the late-2020s and early 2030s as when the momentum would become unmistakable and unstoppable. Now, the actions by automakers and policy changes by the world’s largest economic powers have moved up this timetable.

Speaking of tipping points, Australia is the lucky country yet again. For the first time ever, lithium, a commodity central to the transition, is poised to overtake fossil fuels as a revenue source for Western Australia, the top region in the world for mining investment. Feels like a big moment. Wonder what Scotty thinks? ABC

'This is lithium. Don't be afraid. Don't be scared. It won't hurt you. It's lithium. It was dug up by men and women who work in the electorates of those who sit opposite.' Scotty

Indistinguishable from magic


Beneath 3,500 km2 of rain forest in northern Guatemala, scientists have discovered 417 cities dating back to 1000 BCE that are connected by 117 km of roads, ceremonial complexes, hydraulic systems and agricultural infrastructure. The findings show the ancient Mayas were far more sophisticated than previously thought, 'a whole volume of human history that we’ve never known.' WaPo

Astronomers have used the world's largest survey telescope in Chile to stitch together a million images and create an infrared atlas of five stellar nurseries, revealing the secret lives of young stars in the making. The images pick up even the faintest sources of light, like stars far less massive than the Sun, revealing objects that no one has ever seen before. Cosmos

While we're up there, meet Rayyanah Barnawi, the first female Arab astronaut to go to space. She's on the International Space Station right now, running experiments on stem cells. 'To the people around the world, the future is very bright. I would like you to dream big, believe in yourselves and believe in humanity.' BBC

Prompt engineering, to get engineering: 'I didn’t design any of this,' he says, moving his hands over the intricate arms and curves. 'I gave it these interfaces, which are just simple blocks, and said there’s a mass of five kilograms hanging off here, and it’s going to experience an acceleration of 60G.' NASA is taking metal parts generatively designed by AI to space. Fast Company

Not from an alien spaceship

German researchers have built AI software that can pick up evidence of osteoporosis from a standard set of CT images of the chest. Their program runs in the background during examinations and automatically inspects the spine, giving an indication of any fractures of the vertebrae that might otherwise not have been detected. Kiel University

Straight outta Compton, the world's most advanced indoor vertical farm. Plenty just opened a facility designed to grow up to two million kilograms of arugula, kale, lettuce and spinach a year in California. The new facility, called the Plenty Compton Farm, grows the produce on 3D vertical architecture, which yields up to 350 times more per acre than a conventional farm. Ag Daily

An international team of researchers have enabled a paralysed man to walk again by digitally bridging the communication gap between his brain and lower body. Brain waves travel from electrode arrays surgically embedded in Gert-Jan Oskam's skull, one on each side of the head, to a spinal stimulator, rerouting the signal around the damaged tissue and delivering pulses of electricity to his spinal cord, allowing him to walk more fluidly, navigate obstacles, and climb stairs. Science

In 2019 we reported on the first prototype of an e-tattoo, a wearable device designed to replace clunky machinery used for heart monitoring. There's been an update: scientists from Texas have unveiled the next generation of the device, which does wireless electrocardiography and seismocardiography, is 200 micrometers thick, weighs 2.5 grams, and stretches by 20% when worn.

The information highway is still super


Geoengineering feels scary, conjuring images of aerosols, billionaires and unintended consequences. If you've read Termination Shock you'll know what we mean. However, this one was new to us–seaflooding, which involves opening up low-lying, former seas to the ocean using canals and channels. It's a super simple idea, but one that might just stave off catastrophic sea level rise and regenerate deserts. We're still thinking about it. Uncharted Territories

The internet isn't supposed to be so small.

Science writer Katherine Harmon Courage in a conversation with biologist Andreas Wagner about the tangled trajectory of life, and why we should think twice about our perceived failures. A new organism, a new kind of molecule or work of art or a technological innovation–we think of them as having some kind of inner quality that determines success, but something else has to be in place too—the right world or the right environment—to make them successful. It's all about timing. Nautilus

It's been a while since we posted a music recommendation. Anyone up for some Spaghetti Western deep house? This is a truly banging set from Melbourne-based Uone, based off his new Phantom Whistler album. Perfect for a Friday afternoon. Soundcloud

Tim Urban recently had a baby and wrote about the first three months of fatherhood. 'When a normal person is hungry, or tired, or needs to burp, they’re a little annoyed. Babies are in Shakespearean agony. And then comes the burp and one second later they’re like "sup." It’s insane behavior. For a while, the range of baby emotion runs from Shakespearean agony to neutral, never entering the positive realm.' Wait But Why


That's it for this week, thanks for reading. I'll be in South Africa getting ready for some MBA teaching next week so we'll be skipping an edition, we'll see you in a fortnight.

With love,

Gus and the rest of the FC team


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