195: Density Is Not Destiny

It feels mildly embarrassing to be saying happy new year given how far into 2023 we already are, but we're going to do it anyway. Happy new year! We're delighted to be back after a month's hiatus, our batteries are fully recharged. We've also had some time to work on some long overdue projects in the background which we're really looking forward to sharing with you over the next few weeks.

For those of you joining us for the first time, welcome! Here's how this thing works. Each edition kicks off with 8-10 pieces of good news on human progress, conservation and clean energy, followed by what we think are the most important (or just amazing) science and technology breakthroughs of the week. We then recommend three articles or essays from around the internet, before finishing with a short profile of a person we think you should probably know about.

Content warning: this newsletter is horribly biased. Our goal isn't to be a comprehensive news source, but to bring balance to your information diet by being deliberately unbalanced. The way we see it, there are thousands of media organisations that are excellent at informing you about everything that's going wrong in the world. We're one of the very few that focus on what's going right.

We hope you enjoy it.

Good news you probably didn't hear about

The American Cancer Society has released its latest data showing cancer deaths have fallen again in the United States in the most recent year for which data is available. Between 2019 and 2020, the mortality rate fell by 1.5%, and the overall rate has fallen by 33% since 1991, translating to an estimated 3,820,800 fewer deaths during this period. CNN

The WHO has certified the Democratic Republic of the Congo as free of transmission of dracunculus medinensis, the parasite that causes Guinea-worm disease. Only five countries now remain to be certified (Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mali, South Sudan), while Sudan is in the precertification stage. WHO

The Ugandan government has declared an end to its Ebola outbreak, less than four months after cases were first reported. “Uganda put a swift end to the outbreak by ramping up key control measures such as surveillance, contact tracing and infection, prevention and control. The magic bullet has been our communities." Guardian

Between 2014 and 2021, the WHO's South East Asia Region achieved a 73% reduction in measles deaths and a 64% reduction in cases. Five of the region's 11 countries – Bhutan, DPR Korea, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Timor-Leste - have eliminated measles, and two - Maldives and Sri Lanka - have eliminated rubella as well. WHO

India has the world’s largest measles immunization program, targeting 27 million children annually. It's also one of the most successful - between 2017 and 2021, measles incidence decreased by 62%, and rubella by 48%. Although the pandemic caused millions of children to miss their shots, the programme is now back on track, and officials are aiming for elimination by the end of this year. WHO

It's widely accepted that the 21st century has been bad for democracy around the world: multiple research institutes have pointed out the phenomenon of 'democratic backslide.' However, new research shows there is actually little evidence of this, and that the real story of the last two decades is global democratic stability. OSF

The number of populist leaders around the world has fallen to a 20-year low after a series of victories for centrists in the past year. A new report says that 800 million fewer people are living under populist leaders at the start of 2023 compared to 2020. Much of the decline has occurred in Latin America, most notably with the defeat of Bolsonaro in Brazil. Guardian

Saudi Arabia has made significant progress on women's rights since 2019. Critics say the reforms are intended to deflect attention from the country's flagrant human rights violations, which cannot be ignored, but for millions of women, genuine change is happening quickly, altering the country's social fabric. ABC

America's teen birth rate has plummeted in a single generation, "a change of such improbable magnitude that experts struggle to fully explain it." In 1991, a quarter of 15-year-olds became mothers before turning 20. Today, just 6% become teen mothers, a decline of 77% in 30 years. Teen births have fallen at equal rates among white, Hispanic and Black teenagers, and by more than half in every state. NYT

We all heard about the invasion of Brazil's Congress after Lula's inauguration. Unsurprisingly, the world's media paid less attention to the reopening of Brazil’s Indigenous affairs agency, Funai, bringing together hundreds of indigenous activists and leaders. “This is a very emotional moment. It is almost like a catharsis. Like in soccer, celebrating the goal. It’s an exorcism." Mongabay

The only home we've ever known

A panel of international experts backed by the United Nations has found that the ozone layer is on track to recover by 2040, thanks to decades of policy work to get rid of ozone-damaging chemicals. Since the hole was discovered in May 1985, countries have phased out 99% of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol. NPR

Our success in phasing out ozone-eating chemicals shows us what can and must be done – as a matter of urgency – to transition away from fossil fuels, reduce greenhouse gases and so limit temperature increase.
Petteri Taalas, UN Environment Programme's Ozone Secretariat

Efforts to improve air quality in Europe are paying off with fewer people dying early or suffering illness due to air pollution. The European Environmental Agency just published its latest assessment, showing that between 2005 and 2020 the number of early deaths from exposure to PM2.5 fell by 45%, and the continent is on track to reach its target of a 55% reduction in premature deaths by 2030. EEA

A new analysis of cities around the world had challenged the classic urban trade-off between density and green spaces, concluding that ideal urban neighbourhoods need both. It turns out we can have our energy-efficient metropolises and our cool, clean air smelling of flowers, too. “Density is not destiny." Atlantic

A landmark victory for animal rights in the United States, with new legislation eliminating the requirement that pharmaceutical companies use animals to test new drugs before human trials. It marks a radical shift for the industry, the result of a cumulative effort of decades of scientific and technological breakthroughs and lobbying by activists. NPR

One of the hallmarks of the landmark global biodiversity agreement signed by almost 200 countries in December last year is its emphasis on Indigenous people in conservation efforts, marking a significant shift in the global debate on biodiversity. The agreement also gives credence to the 'Rights of Nature'- a growing movement already adopted by 30 countries and tribal nations. ICN

Decades after being declared biologically dead, the River Mersey in north-west England has been labelled “the best environmental news story in Europe” as fish species have begun rebounding. Conservation efforts along the river are rippling out, boosting the environment across the whole region and into North Wales. Wirral Globe

The recent decision to embark upon the rehabilitation of the Jordan River could prove vital to securing peace between Jordan and Israel. Decades of conflict, along with the climate crisis, have turned its once flowing waters into a trickle and with clean up now essential for both sides, cooperation is the only way forward. Jewish Insider

What’s happening now is a bit like a dream come true. If you came here ten years ago, nobody would have thought that such a thing could happen.
Nadav Tal, Water Officer, EcoPeace, Israel

Conservation efforts in the Caribbean have resulted in the dramatic recovery of the critically endangered Union Island gecko, with a population increase of 80% from 10,000 in 2018 to around 18,000. The gecko, only discovered in 2005, quickly became the target of exotic pet collectors, but was saved thanks to the rapid response of officials and activists. Mongabay

For the first time since 1977, no one-horned rhinos were poached in the Kaziranga National Park in India last year. It’s significant progress considering poachers killed over 190 rhinos in Assam between 2000 and 2021. Despite the poaching, the species' numbers have increased to 3,700 from just 200 at the turn of the century. Reuters

Proof that legislation powers conservation, New York harbour is teeming with life thanks to a landmark act by US Congress 50 years ago. The Clean Water Act helped transform the harbour from an open sewer into a functional ecosystem, with a resurgence in wild oysters, alewife, Atlantic salmon, whales and marine borers, and attracting bald eagles, ospreys, and herons back to the shoreline. NYT

If it bleeds, it leads

About a month ago, at the height of the Elon Musk clown show, and just as Harry and Meghan were getting ready to embark on the final leg of their grim-faced campaign to flog off their last shreds of dignity, a small research hospital in London unveiled an extraordinary milestone in the history of medicine, on par with the first heart transplant or the invention of the polio vaccine, and hardly anyone noticed.

On the 11th December 2022, the Great Ormond Street Hospital for Children announced they had cured a 13-year-old girl, Alyssa, from an 'incurable' form of leukaemia, using a modified form of CRISPR that instead of cutting DNA, changes one letter to another. It's a technique known as base editing, invented just six years ago, and this is the first time it's been used on a person. Following the treatment, Alyssa has no detectable cancer cells, and is now in remission.

In medical circles, the news has been greeted with jubilation and astonishment. Almost everywhere else, the silence has been deafening. We can't help but wonder: what does it say about the priorities of the news industry when the death of a 96 year old British woman was one of the biggest stories of the last 12 months, but the miraculous cure of a 13 year old British teenager, via a new science that could result in millions of lives being saved from cancer, sinks without a trace?

Saving the world is cheaper than ruining it

It was supposed to be a dirty autumn and winter in Europe, as nations scrambled to replace Russian gas with high-polluting coal. In reality, it's been the opposite. “There were widespread expectations that the fossil fuel crisis would lead to an increase in the EU’s emissions. This was based on a misunderstanding.” Forbes

Europe has never added more renewable energy capacity than it did in 2022. Almost half of electricity in Germany was generated from renewables last year, Finland boosted its wind capacity by 75%, and Portugal saw an incredible 251% growth in the amount of solar installed compared to 2021. Euro News

China as usual, put everyone else in the shade. Last year, it installed a record 87.41GW of solar, more than double Europe's installations. Perhaps more importantly, it's ramping up its ability to act as the solar workshop for the world. Longi, one of the top solar manufacturers, just announced $6.7 billion for the world’s largest solar factory, allowing it to build 100 GW of solar wafers per year. SCMP

2022 was an enormous year for climate tech funding. Venture capitalists in the United States invested more last year than during the entire 2006-2011 clean tech 1.0 boom, Europe's venture funding more than doubled, out-investing China for the first time, and around the world, climate tech funding grew by 89%, smashing the previous 2021 record. Holon IQ

The global shipping industry is undergoing its most significant transformation since the advent of containerisation. 4.8% of the world's existing fleet and 43.8% of ships on the order books are capable of using clean fuels such as ammonia or hydrogen. Last year saw a record share of 59% of new ships (by tonnage) ordered capable of using clean fuels, up from 31.5% in 2021. Hellenic

Vietnam has finalised an agreement on a clean energy transition with a coalition of funding countries, spearheaded by the EU, the US and Japan. As part of that agreement, no new coal plants will be approved, which is great news for the planet, as Vietnam has the world's third largest pipeline of proposed coal plants. The Diplomat

South Australia went from 1% renewables in 2007 to 68% in just over 15 years. It's on track for 100% renewable energy by 2030 and at the end of last year, achieved a world record run of ten consecutive days where the average production of wind and solar accounted for 100% of local demand. 100% electrification can and will be done. CDP

Get set for a new era of mega wind. In Denmark, the new 15MW Vestas V236 started producing energy two weeks ago. Off the coast of England, a ship taller than the Eiffel Tower is busy hoisting turbines into place for the world’s largest offshore wind farm, and in China, industrial manufacturing giant CSSC Haizhuang has started making parts for a gargantuan 18MW machine.

China has broken ground on an $11 billion renewables project in Inner Mongolia, part of a massive clean-power rollout to achieve the nation’s ambitious climate targets. The facility is set to become the world’s largest renewable project in a desert region, with 8 GW of solar and 4 GW of wind. Bloomberg

After years of indifference, journalists are finally catching on to the EV revolution. There are now almost three times as many EVs on the world’s roads as there were when the first COVID vaccine was approved. As David Wallace-Wells says, "what looked not that long ago like a climate pipe dream is undeniably underway: a genuine transition away from fossil-fuelled transportation." NYT

In Norway, electric vehicles now represent four out of every five new cars sold. In Germany, more than 55% of new cars registered last month were electric or hybrid. In the United Kingdom, one in three cars sold will be fully electric by the end of this year. In China, the rise of the EV market share for new cars is even more dramatic:

2015 - 1.34%
2016 - 1.81%
2017 - 2.69%
2018 - 4.49%
2019 - 4.68%
2020 - 5.40%
2021 - 13.40%
2022 - 25.64%

Spot a trend? Oh, and last year, half of the world's new buses were electric too.

Indistinguishable from magic

An international team of scientists has achieved an agricultural landmark by propagating a commercial hybrid rice from seeds with 95% efficiency. The process, known as apomixis, has been the target of worldwide research for over 30 years, and should allow farmers to save seeds from high-yielding hybrids and replant each season, potentially unlocking benefits for billions of people. UC Davis

In this week's we're living in a simulation news, two defendants are going to traffic court somewhere in the US, where they will be defended be artificial intelligence. Proceedings will be recorded via glasses, while a chatbot built on GPT-3 will offer legal arguments in real-time, which the defendants have pledged to repeat. Daily Beast

This one's even more cyberpunk. Researchers in Tel Aviv have enabled a robot to smell using a locust antenna. By interpreting electronic signals from the 'biological sensor' and using a machine-learning algorithm, the robot was able to identify odours with a sensitivity 10,000 times higher than standard devices used today. "Nature is much more advanced than we are, so we should use it." JPost

A revolutionary surgical knife that 'smells' tumours can diagnose womb cancer within seconds. Experts at Imperial College London say that the iKnife, a device already used to treat cancerous breast and brain tissue by identifying the smoke they emit during a biopsy, can also detect the presence of endometrial cancer, the fourth most common cancer in women in the UK. Guardian

Scientists from Texas have discovered that low-frequency ultrasound has a rejuvenating effects on animals. As well as restarting cell division in ageing human cells, it reinvigorates old mice, improving their physical performance and making one old mouse with a hunched back move around normally again. "Is this too good to be true? We’re examining all aspects to see if it really does work.” New Scientist

Benjamin Franklin eat your heart out. Swiss scientists have revealed that in 2021 they trained a laser the size of a car on a lightning rod atop a mountain, creating a huge filament in the sky, and then watched as it guided four discharges of electricity down the ground. It's the first successful attempt to control lightning with lasers. Inverse

The information highway is still super

A trifecta of optimism, courtesy of three very different journalists.

The first piece, which could easily be a manifesto for this newsletter, is from Rebecca Solnit, who says the frameworks in which we receive our stories about the world matter, and so do the critical skills to recognise, choose, and change how we talk about the future. Apocalyptic thinking, she argues, is a narrative failure, an inability to imagine a world different than the one we currently inhabit, and nowhere is this more true than the climate crisis. There's a better story out there if we're willing to search for it. Guardian

The second is from the excellent Rose Eveleth (if you haven't listened to her podcast you should) on the politics of hope. She says we should be careful not to let hope become a marketing tool, and remember that it can't be given to us by company or politician. It's something to build in and among ourselves as a beginning, not as an end - a place to start, not a feeling to marinate in. "Hope isn’t an emotion, you know? Hope is not optimism, hope is a discipline; we have to practice it every single day." Wired

Here's David Brooks hitting a lot of the same notes as the previous two, but with a more US-centric angle. What if, contrary to popular opinion, America is going to be alright? The country's story is one of convulsion and reinvention, and it always has been. People and movements rise up, things change, culture shifts. He argues that the US has been in the middle of one its tumultuous transition periods since 2013, but that 2022 evinced hopeful signs that it might be coming out of it. Atlantic

Humankind

The cellist of Sarajevo

Meet Vedran Smailović, a 66 year old musician from Bosnia and Herzegovina who captured the world’s imagination during the Seige of Sarajevo when he played his cello in a ruined square and in full view of snipers for 22 days.

Vedran grew up in a musical family. His father, a composer, would organise public performances for Vedran and his four sisters to share their music, often in remote villages that missed out on big cultural events.  After a childhood of practice, Vedran went onto become the principal cellist for the Sarajevo Opera.

In 1992, he was living in Sarajevo when the four-year siege of his city began. On the 27th May an artillery shell exploded in front of a bakery close to where he lived, killing 22 innocent people lined up to buy bread. The following day, without planning it, Vedran picked up his cello, went outside to the crater left by the blast and played Albinoni’s Adagio in G minor (link). Despite the risk of snipers on the surrounding hills, grieving locals gathered around to listen.

Vedran returned to the square at 4pm fsharp or the following 22 days to pay tribute to his lost neighbours and friends. And he continued playing around the war-ravaged city for another two years, often at funerals and always dressed in a white shirt and black tailcoat. His cello became a powerful weapon of hope, creating a surge of local creativity and capturing the world’s attention.

Although he became an international symbol of courage, Vedran wasn’t interested in publicity or becoming a leader. In December 1993, friends helped him escape the city and he moved to Northern Ireland, where he still lives in an attic flat composing music and playing chess.

His was single act of ‘cultural resistance’ that has inspired other musicians to rise up in warzones like the Balkans, Syria, and the Ukraine, where today artists are playing Bach, Vivaldi and folk songs in subway stations to remind people of their humanity in the most inhumane of circumstances.

When a reporter asked Vedron whether he was crazy to play his cello during a war, he replied, “You ask me am I crazy for playing the cello, why do you not ask if they are not crazy for shelling Sarajevo?”

That's it for this edition, thanks for reading, it's great to be back. We're looking forward to landing in your inbox again next week.

Much love,

Gus, Amy and the rest of the team