This is the members only edition of Future Crunch, a weekly roundup of good news, mind-blowing science, and the best bits of the internet. One third of your subscription fee goes to charity. If someone forwarded this, you can sign up here. You can buy a gift subscription here. We're also on Instagram, Facebook and Twitter.
Give a damn
We recently heard about a really clever initiative from an NGO in Turkey called Imece. They invented a 10,000 MAh phone-charging powerbank with a torch, charging cables for all types of phones, and its own little solar panels. They've trained Syrian refugees to make the powerbanks - giving them employment and income - and are distributing the devices to other, newly arrived refugees.
We're sending them US$5,000, which will pay for 100 powerbanks. They'll be distributed in February 2023 to refugees on the road of exile in Bosnia. Last time the organisation was there most people were coming from Afghanistan, but by next year there will be other nationalities in need. The people receiving the devices are extremely vulnerable, and being able to charge their phones will allow them to keep contact with their families, use Google Maps and call rescue services in case of emergency, which apparently happens very often.
A big thank you to all of you for making this possible. That's 100 new devices thanks to your generosity, that will make a real difference to many hundreds of people who have lost everything.
Good news you probably didn't hear about
Tanzania is winning its fight against tuberculosis, the world's deadliest infectious disease. Cases have fallen from 306 per 100,000 people in 2015 to 208 per 100,000 in 2021, and annual deaths have declined from 55,000 to 25,800 in the same period. This is really good news - Tanzania has the sixth highest TB burden in the world. The Citizen
Brazil's Ministry of Health has reported a 28% decrease in malaria cases, falling from 194,979 ijn 2017, to 140,385 in 2021. Across the region of the Americas, overall cases have fallen from 1.5 million to 650,000 in the last two decades, and there's been a 56% reduction in deaths from the disease. Outbreak News
Five years ago, half of Kenya's babies were born without a skilled attendant. Today, 90% are born under the care of a trained health professional, and child mortality has fallen to less than half of what it was 20 years ago. Nation
Tw0 years after its launch, a program to eliminate cervical cancer has reached its target of treating 90% of all women identified with pre-cancerous lesions in project sites in seven countries - Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Malawi, Nigeria, Philippines, Rwanda and Senegal. That's seven years ahead of schedule. Unitaid
Reading used to be a luxury reserved for a few in Latin America. Now, it’s the standard. Although there is still some way to go before every child in the region can read, it's clear that there has been substantial progress towards becoming a region of literate citizens, bringing a new promising era of prosperity. Latinometrics
The Gates Foundation just announced it will spend $7 billion over the next four years to support African countries in confronting hunger, disease, gender inequality, and poverty. “The big global challenges we face are persistent. But we have to remember, so are the people solving them."
Reproductive rights advocates around the world can look to Mexico, Colombia, and Argentina for perspective, strategy, and hope. All three countries have enshrined a woman's right to choose in the last two years thanks to a multipronged approach: grassroots organizing, strategic litigation, and most importantly, changing the narrative. Yes Magazine
Crime has plummeted in the United Kingdom. Compared with the year before the pandemic, burglary is down 28%, robbery down by 23%, vehicles offenses have fallen by 19%, knife crime by 9%, firearm offenses are down 10%, and homicides have decreased by 5%. Overall crime is now at its lowest level since the 1980s. ONS
As the dust settles on the midterms, and the USA pauses for Thanksgiving, there are plenty of reasons for hope. In blue and red states, voters made choices that reflected care and concern for their fellow citizens, choosing to protect public health and use the levers of government to extend dignity to people in extreme poverty, crushing debt and imprisonment. The Hill
The governor of Oregon is granting a mass pardon for state-level marijuana possession offenses, removing 47,144 convictions, forgiving $14 million in fees and fines, and eliminating barriers for thousands of people seeking employment, housing, and educational opportunities who have otherwise been ineligible.
No one deserves to be saddled with the impacts of a simple possession of marijuana conviction—a crime that is no longer on the books in Oregon. I am pardoning these prior Oregon offenses, an act that will impact an estimated 45,000 individuals. https://t.co/mT9bcYzCcV
— Governor Kate Brown (@OregonGovBrown) November 21, 2022
The only home we've ever known
Belize is doubling its marine protected areas as part of a 'blue bonds' agreement that swaps national debt for conservation. The trailblazing approach has proven successful in Seychelles and similar negotiations are underway in the Caribbean, Africa, and Latin America. “It’s like a bank agreeing to refinance a home if the owner promises to put the savings toward improvements.” Nature Conservancy
We have a responsibility to the planet and future generations to conserve as much as we can. We can show that conservation is good business and that it can have a direct impact on the people most affected by climate change.
Prime Minister of Belize, Juan Antonio Briceño
The largest dam removal project in the world has been approved, and will restore hundreds of kilometres of salmon habitat along the Klamath River, the second-largest river in California. The project has been championed by Native tribes and environmentalists for years and is part of a growing trend in the US that has, to date, removed 1,951 dams. NPR
Good news for sharks! 88 countries have voted to expand fishing regulations to protect 95% of shark species fished for their fins. The decision is a “landmark in not only the number of species it covers, but in the amount of the trade that is going to be regulated." Meanwhile, trials of a new battery-powered device called SharkGuard has been shown to reduce shark bycatch in fishing gear by 91%.
Nepal’s forests are flourishing thanks to a government policy adopted over 40 years ago that handed large swaths of national forest back to local communities to manage. Forests now cover 45% of the country, and a third are managed by communities, allowing endangered plants and wildlife, including the tiger and one-horned rhinoceros, to thrive. NYT
Young Rohingya refugees have reforested over 600h ha of Kutupalon, the world’s largest refugee camp in Bangladesh. 2,500 ha of forest were cleared to deal with the humanitarian crisis and now youth groups inside the camps are giving back - driving waste management, planting, and education initiatives to combat climate change. Mongabay
South Korea has achieved almost zero food waste thanks to a mandatory composting scheme. It’s a staggering achievement considering in 1996, the country recycled only 2.6% of food scraps. Residents buy designated food waste bags for around 20c a piece - creating a 'pay-as-you-throw' tax to help pay for the process. Guardian
Efforts to save the endangered Fender’s blue butterfly in Oregon have reaped double rewards - quadrupling not only the population, but saving its host plant, the Kincaid’s lupine, from extinction as well. The butterfly is slated to be downlisted from endangered to threatened, making it the second insect in the history of the Endangered Species Act to ever recover. HCN
Back in edition 165 we featured a Humankind story about Paolo Fanciulli, a fisherman in Italy who created an underwater sculpture gallery to stop bottom-trawling along the coastline. Today Paolo’s anti-trawling sculptures span from Porto Santo Stefano to the Ombrone River, protecting 137 km2 of seagrass meadows and fish habitat. “It’s small but it’s remarkable given the lack of any official backing or funds.” Wired
Saving the world is cheaper than ruining it
Ignore the disappointment of COP27, a fossil fuel shakedown with a last minute climate bone in the form of a theoretical fund which may or may not turn up, and is already 30 years behind schedule. Focus instead on what one analyst describes as perhaps the biggest two months ever in the history of energy finance, a staggering deal flow that more than compensates for the frustration of international climate diplomacy. The floodgates have opened, and the transition is accelerating. You just need to know where to look.
Over the last decade, the flow of dollars into decarbonization has tripled, reaching around 0.75% of global GDP in 2021 - and we're going to go well past that in 2022 if trends from the first half of the year are maintained. The free hand of the market has caught the carbon-busting, renewable energy fever, and there's no turning back.
And no Politico... coal is not bouncing back. Here's why.
Did you know that global per capita carbon emissions have already peaked? This is genuine progress, the product of decades of action by civil society pushing against fossilized interests. It's woefully, shamefully, maybe criminally, inadequate. But it is real. And peak carbon emissions for humanity as a whole - when it happens - will mark a turning point in the climate fight.
The latest IEA analysis shows that today’s climate pledges by governments, if fully achieved, would limit global temperature rise to 1.7°C. That's an improvement on 1.8°C from a year ago thanks to new pledges, notably Indonesia’s. Of course, the pledges need to be matched by action, but we've come a long way since the days of the Paris Agreement.
The global solar PV industry is forecast to produce 310 GW of modules in 2022, representing an incredible 45% year-on-year increase compared to 2021. Almost all major markets have seen strong double-digit growth in demand, in keeping with the manic craving for solar that has gripped the world in the past year. PV Tech
Good news from the United States: solar generation is up 28% and wind is up 22% through first eight months of 2022 compared to same period in 2021. Wind and solar combined now provide 15% of the country's power, more than double compared to just five years ago, and are on track to overtake coal and nuclear this year. EIA
Applications are now open to states, tribes, and utilities in the United States to tap into $13 billion in new financing opportunities for the expansion and modernization of the power grid. It's the largest single direct federal investment in transmission and distribution infrastructure in the country's history. Electrek
As the US looks to dislodge China's market dominance in EVs, money is pouring into everything from graphite plants and cobalt refineries to gigafactories. Analysts estimate over $91bn will be pumped into the US battery industry in the next decade as a result of the Inflation Reduction Act. Financial Times
Another week, another red state gets a huge investment thanks to the IRA, legislation voted against by every single Republican. This time around, it's Tennessee, which will be home to a $3 billion battery cathode factory. Production starts in the second half of 2025 and the plant will create more than 850 jobs. Reuters
The South Australian grid has been reconnected after a week of isolation, during which time wind and solar still delivered nearly two thirds of electricity needs. Despite heavy curtailment of rooftop solar, renewables maintained a 65% share, the highest ongoing share of wind and solar of any grid of this size in the world. Renew Economy
Global momentum is accelerating toward zero-emission road transport. Electric vehicle sales are on track for more than 10 million units this year, up from 6.6 million in 2021. There has also been a 38% increase in global lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity, and overall spending on clean road transport worldwide is set to exceed $450 billion. Clean Technica
Don't forget the two wheelers either. 10 million new electric cars is pretty amazing, but pales in comparison to the 275 million electric motorcycles, tuk-tuks, mopeds, and scooters already on the roads. Together, they're displacing over a million barrels of oil a day, more than all electric passenger vehicles, vans, trucks, and buses combined. Protocol
Indistinguishable from magic
The International System of Units just added four new prefixes to the metric system to handle exponential growth in digital data. Until last Friday we measured the biggest things using yotta (24 zeroes after the first digit). Now we have ronna (27 zeroes) and quetta (30 zeroes) at the top of the measurement range, and ronto (27 zeroes after the decimal point) and quecto (30 zeroes) at the bottom. NPR
Straight out of a cyberpunk story, Intel has just unveiled a tool called FakeCatcher, the first real-time detector of deepfakes. It uses something called photoplethysmography to measure the subtle blood flow in video pixels, and has a an accuracy rate of 96%. “You cannot see it with your eyes, but it is computationally visible." Venture Beat
About a year ago, we highlighted the work of Climate Trace, an international collaboration with an ambitious plan to use satellite imagery and AI to identify carbon emissions from every power plant, farm, city, airport, and feedlo in the world. Well, incredibly, they've pulled it off. Check out their amazing map. No more place for fossil fuels to hide, and an incredible new tool for climate activism.
New research shows that during a critical early period of brain development, the gut’s microbiome helps to mould a specific cluster of forebrain neurons that are important for social skills later in life. Scientists found this influence in fish, but molecular and neurological evidence plausibly suggests that some form of it could also occur in mammals, including humans. Quanta
A British startup has invented a plastic replacement called Vivomer, created from microbes found in soil and the ocean that can be shaped into solid containers, as well as more flexible products. “If you throw this jar away, the same microbes will see it, recognize it as food, and break it down." Their first client is a skincare brand, which just ordered 300,000 items. Wired
Last week, for the first time ever, the FDA approved the human consumption of lab-grown meat — chicken created by California's Upside Foods. Unlike the plant-based meat in Beyond burgers, lab-grown meat is created and cultured in a lab utilizing a handful of actual animal cells as a launching pad. 96% less emissions, 96% less water, 99% less land... and 100% fewer animals. NYT
This is a really good story about one of our favourite subjects - farming in the Netherlands. How does one of the smallest, most densely populated countries in the world manage to produce enough not only feed itself, but be the planet's second largest exporter of produce? Science, technology and generations of human ingenuity. Washington Post (soft paywall - archive.ph doesn't do it justice).
The information highway is still super
“The clock does not measure time; it produces it.” You've probably come across this argument before, but this essay Joe Zadeh is the best version we've encountered. We discipline our lives by the time on the clock, arranging our working lives, our free time and even our bodily functions by it, becoming 'time-binding animals' - and yet it's all an illusion. Coordinated time is a mathematical construct, not the measure of a specific phenomenon. Neoma
Pulitzer-Prize winning journalist Elizabeth Kolbert spent six months working on this A-Z of climate change for the New Yorker, and it's amazing. Not sure there's ever been a story for the magazine structured this way? It's an absolute masterpiece, both the writing and the illustrations combining to say something new about what might be the most discussed topic on planet Earth today. Highly recommended - just give yourself time!
Ian Leslie on three models for being good. Bono's old school elite activism, Greta Thunberg's radicalism, and Sam Bankman-Fried's technocratic effective altruism. His argument is that contrary to popular opinion, the first model might be the most effective. It's not cool, but it's probably had more impact than the other two, and it seems odd that it inspires so little admiration among those wish to improve the world.
Humankind
Heroes against dengue
Meet Norbert Lehmann, a 76 year old retired dentist from Karlsruhe, Germany, who helped kickstart Brazil’s most successful anti-dengue campaign thanks to a bunch of kids and some margarine tubs.
After retiring in 2005, Norbert started a new chapter of humanitarian work in Complexo Da Maré, a favela in Rio de Janeiro. Initially he was there providing free dental service but when a 4 year old patient named Janine contracted dengue and died in her mother’s arms while waiting at the hospital, Norbert’s mission changed forever.
He couldn’t reconcile that if the family had known what symptoms to look for, Janine’s death could have been prevented. He knew education was the key but gang control inside the favella made it difficult for adults to come in and run programs. It wasn’t until he returned to Germany that a childhood memory sparked a solution.
Growing up Norbert played football with his friends in the Rhine, where there were lots of mosquitos. The kids would go home and complain to their parents who would alert the authorities of the worst affected locations. Thanks to tip-off, government helicopters would drop crushed ice infused with bacteria around those sites to reduce breeding. Norbert was convinced children in Brazil could do something similar.
In 2014 he hired local social workers inside Maré to educate children about dengue. Dozens of kids signed up to become 'Heroes against Dengue' and marched the streets in their bright yellow t-shirts educating the population on simple measures to combat mosquito-borne diseases.
Later that year when Zika broke out around Brazil, medical teams reported fewer cases inside Maré, proof that Norbert’s mission was working. Shortly after, the government trialled an anti-mosquito programme using the Wolbachia method, but when it failed to gain traction around the favelas, Norbert sent his young heroes to the rescue once again.
The teenagers started breeding mosquitoes in margarine tubs filled with Wolbachia, a bacteria that blocks the transmission of dengue to humans, and released the insects around different parts of the neighbourhood. Since 2015, cases have fallen by 95% in Rio, and the program is now being replicated across Brazil and other countries - a success driven by a group of kids and a German dentist.
That's all, thank you again to all of you for making this week's donation possible, we're looking forward to reporting back once the powerbanks have been distributed, hopefully with some photos.
We'll see you next week.
Much love,
Gus, Amy and the rest of the team
