277: Nauseously Optimistic
We're sending this out as the first results start to come in from the US election. A friendly reminder that from now until the final call, we're all living in the metaphorical equivalent of an airport lounge. Calories don't count, and money doesn't matter. Conversations with strangers are encouraged. No one will judge you for having a beer at 10am.
For what it's worth, the US stock market is at all-time highs, the uninsured rate is near an all-time low, life expectancy is at highest level ever, apartment construction hasn’t been this hot in half a century, inflation, illegal immigration, crime and obesity are falling, wages are higher than any point in history, the percentage of the population that is employed is near an all-time peak, productivity is outpacing every other comparable country, carbon emissions are declining, clean energy production is soaring, next month America's factories will start mass producing the most advanced technology on Earth, and it's still the wealthiest and most important nation in the world.
A conversation with Steven Pinker
If you're looking for a good way to distract yourself while you wait, then how about the final episode of our podcast for this season? It's not an exaggeration to say this newsletter wouldn't exist if it wasn't for Steven Pinker, he's been a guiding light for over a decade, and for long time, a loyal and very public supporter of the work we're doing here. After years of email correspondence, it was great to finally have a proper conversation.
Topics discussed include: why longstanding peace never makes headlines; the best metrics for human progress; the decline of mental health in rich countries; the problem with word police; changes in social norms and how they happen; why today’s election in the United States is better than 1968; the cognitive illusion perpetuated by mass media; the power of graphs and data to change beliefs; how to design better institutions; the lessons that Steven has learned the hard way; and the power of reasonable hope.
This week's top stories
Deaths from air pollution falling worldwide
The Lancet has found that the number of people killed by air pollution from fossil fuels fell by almost 7% between 2016 and 2021, from 2.25 million to 2.09 million people. Researchers have attributed this to the closure of coal-fired power stations; $1.8 trillion went into clean energy last year, versus $1.1 trillion into fossil fuels. The Times
Meet the first star system to 'solve' the three-body problem
Astrophycists, and more recently sci-fi nerds, have long assumed planetary orbits around three or more stars would be fundamentally unstable due to the nature of the three-body problem. That's been thrown out with the discovery of the GW Orionis system, which has planets in orbit around all three of its stars, suggesting such a configuration is not only possible, but relatively common. Big Think
Global beef consumption appears to have peaked
USDA figures show that the world’s increasing meat demands are being met by pork and chicken rather than beef and that the global cattle herd, at 923 million heads, is at a record low. Cattle’s high water, land, and feed requirements may also be capping the ability for supplies to grow Bloomberg 🎁
A Kenyan river restoration project pays for itself and then some
In 2015, the Nature Conservancy launched a fund drawn from public and private sources to finance watershed restoration and reforestation around the Tana River, the water supply for Nairobi’s five million people. Since then, there has been over 50% reduction in sediment concentration in the river and 15% increase in annual water yield across watersheds. Mongabay
EU emissions on track for a record decline in 2024
The EU's emissions dropped 8.3% in 2023 - the largest annual decrease in decades - and it looks like they will plummet again in 2024, thanks to coal- and gas-fired power declining faster than predicted. “We are on track to meet our 2030 targets to reduce emissions by at least 55 percent if this momentum is maintained."
The coming revolution in climate-adapted crops and animals
Jennifer Doudna, the co-developer of CRISPR, says that many CRISPR-edited plants and animals are on the way, including cattle edited to have coats better suited to hotter temperatures, corn with shorter, stronger stalks to reduce storm damage, rice that's more drought tolerant than standard varieties, as well as crops that may suck up and store away more carbon dioxide. MIT
From the very beginning, of course, it was clear that this was going to be a powerful tool that could be misunderstood and could be misused. But it also has tremendous potential to help us tackle a lot of these challenges.
Giants rats join fight against illegal wildlife trafficking
Researchers have successfully trained African giant pouched rats to sniff out illegally traded animal parts and alert their handlers. The rats were taught to pick up on and remember the scents of elephant ivory, rhino horn, and pangolin scales against background scents, helping law enforcement to identify black market wildlife products. IFL Science
India closer to a tuberculosis-free future
A highlight from the WHO's recent tuberculosis report - the incredible progress in India, which has the world's highest burden of the disease. Between 2015 and 2023 there was a 17.7% decline in TB incidence, more than double the global decline of 8.3%. The Hindu
Kenya commits to universal school meals coverage by 2030
Supported by the UN and The Rockefeller Foundation, Kenya has announced a new plan to expand its region-leading School Meals Programme from 1.9 million learners in 2023 to over 10 million by 2030. The government has also committed to a 'planet-friendly' approach to school feeding. Rockefeller Foundation
Solar energy brings hope in the remote Amazon
An often-overlooked benefit of the clean energy transition - access to energy for people that have never had it. In recent years, solar projects have multiplied in communities in the Amazon, thanks to an accelerated rollout by multiple countries, including Brazil, Peru, Ecuador and Colombia. Dialogue Earth
The freezer, mobile phones and spotlights are now among the community’s most used, and most valued, bits of equipment. Though the night sky is no longer as starry with the increase in artificial light, the solar panels’ replacement of many of the generators has brought quiet and taken away the smell of burning fuel.
Winning streak extended for Japan’s LGBTQ+ community
Earlier this year Japan's Sapporo High Court ruled that the government’s policy against same-sex marriage was unconstitutional, and now Tokyo's High Court has labelled the ongoing ban “a groundless legal discrimination based on sexual orientation." The victory creates more pressure on the government to legalise same-sex marriage. AP
Saving women’s lives across the world
The WHO has compiled a selection of powerful stories demonstrating how donor support has helped save the lives of women and girls globally. These include the training of traditional birth attendants in Latin America; initiatives to lower maternal mortality rates in Tanzania and Côte d'Ivoire; and the provision of vital services to children, pregnant women, and new mothers in Somalia.
The $1,000 wheelchair
Zack Nelson, the star of an 8.8-million-subscriber YouTube channel, and his wife Cambry, a wheelchair user, have launched Not a Wheelchair, a company aiming to provide customisable manual wheelchairs for $999. Quality wheelchair wheels often cost more than $500 and delivery can take up to six months. New Mobility
Human progress
Protecting future generations in Africa, Asia and the Americas
The DRC has added the R21 malaria vaccine to its national immunisation programme, aiming to reach over 170,000 children in Kongo Central province, Cambodia has launched a measles-rubella vaccination campaign to protect over 1.5 million children, and PAHO countries will soon gain access to affordable maternal vaccines.
The global war against inflation has largely been won
The International Monetary Fund has predicted that worldwide inflation will stabilise from 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% this year and to 4.3% in 2025. Despite the huge impact of COVID-19, the global economy has continued to grow: “The decline in inflation without a global recession is a major achievement.” PBS
Polio vaccination campaign resumes in northern Gaza
Thanks to a humanitarian pause, the WHO was able to resume the third phase of Gaza’s polio vaccination campaign on November 2nd. The latest campaign was delivered by 216 teams across 106 fixed sites, with 209 social mobilisers deployed to engage communities and raise awareness around vaccination efforts. WHO
World Bank's new poverty line reflects global progress
The World Bank has officially raised its poverty line - a sign that a smaller proportion of people are living in extreme poverty than ever before. In 1990, around one third of the world’s population lived on less than $2.15 a day; today, this figure is less than 9%, with low and middle-income countries accounting for more than three-quarters of the world's population. World Bank
Oman paves way for universal social security system
Oman's new social security law, taking effect in July 2026, includes a monthly universal child benefit to every family and expands protections like work injury, maternity, and sickness insurance for documented migrant workers. Activists say the measures could set a “groundbreaking standard in the region.” HRW
Reducing poverty and malnutrition in South-East Asia
In the Philippines, self-rated poverty dropped five percentage points from Q3 2023 to Q3 2024, equating to about 1.3 million families no longer facing hunger, and in Indonesia, stunting prevalence decreased from 37% in 2014 to 21.5% in 2023, approaching the WHO's target of under 20%.
Australia to wipe out billions in student loan debt
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced that he will cut student loans by 20% for around three million Australians, clearing up to A$16 billion ($10 billion) in debt. The move, which will take effect in June 2025, is intended to target cost of living pressures. Reuters
Thailand moves to end statelessness for 500,000 people
Thailand’s cabinet has approved an accelerated pathway to permanent residency and citizenship for 335,000 longtime residents and recognised minority group members, plus about 142,000 of their children. Once implemented, this will be the single largest reduction of statelessness by any country worldwide. UN News
Environmental restoration
Biodiversity convention ends early but yields partial progress
COP16 was suspended early but managed to make progress on several targets for 2030. Countries agreed on an expanded role of Indigenous Peoples and local communities in saving biodiversity and a groundbreaking agreement on a new global mechanism to share benefits from digital genetic information. Convention on Biological Diversity
The Nature Conservancy goes big on biodiversity protection
David Banks, the organisation's Chief Conservation Officer, has a list here of some incredible efforts around the world—including a deal to protect 145,039 km² of land in Mongolia, watershed investment programs in 30 countries, and the expansion of marine protected areas over an area larger than the Gulf of Mexico. The Nature Conservancy
Rewilded golf courses provide value for humans and wildlife
Across the United States, the United Kingdom, Australia, and Canada, nonprofits are buying shuttered golf courses and turning them into nature preserves or parks. Rewilding golf courses has enabled the expansion of wildlife corridors, promoted restoration of flood plains, and provided recreational areas for residents. The Tyee
Conservationists by enormous English estate for regeneration
A group of wildlife charities plans to create a ‘showcase for nature recovery’ after the largest land sale in England for three decades - the 38 km2 Rothbury estate in England’s north-east. It was previously used for game shooting and rearing sheep, but new ownership spells the end of hunting – and farming will be regenerative only. The Wildlife Trusts
The ozone hole continues healing in 2024
The ozone hole was relatively small this year, ranking the seventh smallest on record since recovery efforts began in 1992. The improvement is due to a combination of continuing declines in CFC) chemicals, along with an unexpected infusion of ozone carried by air currents from north of the Antarctic. Scientists project the ozone layer will fully recover by 2066. Earth Observatory
Russian conflict an opportunity for rewilding Ukraine
Russia’s dynamiting of a dam along Dnieper River in Ukraine last year flooded 80 villages and resulted in more than 100 deaths. But now, the river has resumed its original flow patterns, sturgeons are returning to old spawning grounds, and new willow trees are reaching three meters in height. Yale Environment 360
More US states restrict toxic and forever chemicals
Following the release of the EPA’s new standards limiting PFAs in drinking water, more than 16 states have adopted 22 PFAS-related measures this year. Meanwhile, a new study shows that California’s strict chemical regulations have resulted in lower levels of BPA, PFAs, and other toxics in Californians.
Legislative milestones for watersheds in the United States
Oregon’s Klamath Basin is expected to receive $46 million in investments for ecosystem restoration activities as Chinook salmon are swimming in it for the first time in 112 years, and California just passed legislation to implement a comprehensive program for beaver restoration throughout California's watersheds, which will improve water quality and expand floodplains.
Good news for ringed seals and red-cockaded woodpeckers
Finland’s population of the endangered Saimaa ringed seal has doubled over the last decade, with a seasonal ban on fishing with nets helping the population climb to 495 individuals, and in Texas and Virginia, after 54 years, the red-cockaded woodpecker has been downlisted from endangered to threatened, with family clusters rising from 1,470 in 1970 to about 7,900 clusters today.
The clean energy transition
The world's 4th largest carbon emitter ramps up renewables
India has crossed the 200 GW mark for installed clean energy, and installations are accelerating - renewables accounted for 99% of all new capacity installed between June and September 2024, while, coal only made up 1% of all installed capacity. Solar leads the way, with over 90GW of installed capacity. IEEFA
German coal use plunges in 2024
In the first nine months of 2024, the consumption of hard coal to generate electricity fell by 39% compared to the same period the previous year. The drop in coal use saved 20 million tonnes of CO2 in the first three quarters of 2024, putting the country on track for a decline of 3.3% in energy-related CO2 emissions over the whole year. Clean Energy Wire
The United States is building charging stations - fast
There's been a quiet charger-building blitz in the United States this year, especially in the Midwest and South, with the number of fast-charging options in the US has grown by 35%. At this rate by the end of the year there will be roughly one electron station for every 10 US gas stations. Bloomberg 🎁
Australia's clean energy pipeline surges by over one third
The Australian Energy Market Operator says the capacity of projects going through the connection process has jumped by more than a third to 45.6 GW, with battery storage almost doubling from last year to 14.7 GW. That means there's more than enough in the queue now - time to sort out transmission. Renew Economy
European renewable power prices fall again
The price of renewable energy sold via large scale power purchase agreements have fallen across Europe in the third quarter of the year. Whilst PPAs are contracts between large corporate buyers and energy developers, policymakers predict the fall in energy prices will flow to households as a greater supply of green energy will cut costs. Cheap, clean energy = good news for Europe. Reuters
BYD overtakes Tesla in quarterly revenue
China’s No. 1 automaker sold half a million pure-electric or plug-in hybrid vehicles in October, up by a staggering 66% compared to the same month last year, and it has doubled its overseas sales in the first nine-months of the year. Some of the company’s newer hybrids come with upgraded powertrains that allow for more than 2,000 km (1,243 miles) of range.
Another step forward for the SunCable
Singapore’s energy market authority has given the green light to the SunCable project, which aims to pipe clean energy from the Australian outback to Southeast Asia via undersea cables. The ambitious project, deemed technically and economically viable by Singapore’s EMA, could open the door to other cross-continental energy production projects, including in North Africa.
Much-needed investment into US grid modernisation
No transition without transmission. In response to recent climate disasters in the United States that have damaged critical infrastructure, the Biden Administration rece announced a $2 billion investment to strengthen and modernise energy transmission and grid infrastructure, with a focus on rural areas.
World’s first carbon-neutral cement plants
Concrete is the most ubiquitous building material on the planet, but making it generates massive amounts of CO2 emissions. There are multiple initiatives underway around the world now to try and solve this - from slashing, or even replacing the use of limestone, to capturing the carbon generated when it’s burned, and even using crushed waste concrete to draw down emissions. Yale360
Scientific discovery
Lidar mapping reveals lost cities along the Silk Road
There's been a spate of discoveries of lost cities in South and Central America in recent years; now anthropologists have discovered two ancient cities in modern-day Uzbekistan, both built over 2,000 metres above sea level like Machu Picchu. One of them, Tugunbulak, was larger than Siena, one of the most influential city-states in medieval Italy, at the height of its power. Ars Technica
There's a new prime candidate in the hunt for dark matter
For decades, scientists have thought that the main suspect f0r dark matter was weakly interacting massive particles, known as WIMPs. However, searches by large particle colliders have come up short, and so now attention is turning to axions - theorised lumps of matter barely more substantial than a thought, and named after a laundry detergent. NYT 🎁
Uncovering ancient termite wonders
In a desolate corner of Namaqualand, South Africa, university students have accidentally discovered enormous termite mounds. Radiocarbon dating has revealed the mounds are far older than any previously known, with some dating as far back as 34,000 years – older than the last Ice Age. Al Jazeera
What's so special about the human brain?
We cannot recommend this interactive data essay in Nature enough. If it's been a while since you went down a neuroscience rabbit hole, it's probably time to update your assumptions - the last few years have seen a torrent of new data. For example, it's not just the size; our neurons are longer and make more connections with each other than in other species, and our brains take a lot longer to grow.
Effort to sequence DNA of millions of species gains momentum
Six years ago scientists launched a massively ambitious effort to sequence the genomes of some 1.67 million plants, animals, fungi, and other microbes—essentially all known eukaryotes, or species with complex cells. Thus far, they've sequenced 3,000 genomes and say they're on track to reach 10,000—the goal for the project’s first phase—by 2026. Science
First patient receives in vivo gene therapy for blood cancer
CAR-T therapy is where a patient's own immune cells are manipulated to help fight cancer cells. So far, this has only been conducted 'ex-vivo', where the cells are extracted from the patient's blood, edited, and reintroduced by injection. Now, scientists in Philadelphia have used an 'in-vivo' approach for the first time, where immune cells are manipulated directly within the patient. Globe Newswire
New, Earth-friendly construction method invented
Swiss researchers have developed a robotic construction method called impact printing; instead of typical construction materials, it uses Earth-based materials such as sand, silt, clay, and gravel, which are cheap and can be dug up on site, and 'spits' them out in a high-velocity jet, using a balance of fine and coarse particles, ensuring both ease of use and structural strength. Ars Technica
The best bits of the internet (Amy)
For 20 years, the New York Times' Modern Love column (🎁) has captured the complicated love lives of real people and the changing world of relationships. Its most popular article of all time, The 36 Questions That Lead to Love (🎁) has been read by more than 75 million people and includes intimate questions like “before making a telephone call, do you ever rehearse what you are going to say? Why?”
Modern Love began the same year as Facebook, three years before iPhones, eight years before Tinder, and 11 years before same-sex marriage became legal nationwide. The world has changed a lot in two decades, and my life changed, too. When this column started, I was 41, married for 12 years, with two children in grade school. Now I am 61, separated for three years, my two children having long left home for jobs and lives of their own.
‘Brat’ is officially Collins Dictionary word of the year. Inspired by Charli XCX, its updated definition is someone with a "confident, independent and hedonistic attitude," which some may argue is not so different to a demanding toddler.
Gen Z is changing the English language, and if you want to see how something like Shakespeare holds up, this video is one of my favourite things on the internet right now.
On the topic of words, I loved this piece by David Diamond who started photographing the word tattoos of strangers that he met all over the world. "Look at a word tattoo and you see what matters or what hurts. Word tattoos are billboards of confession, inspiration, aspiration, warning, or declaration of love.”
Around the world, converted railroad lines, canals, and even highways have become the prime movers of urban regeneration and reimagination. Since 2009, the High Line in New York has unlocked a new cultural and commercial hub for the city - marking the fine line between regeneration and gentrification.
And finally, a reminder that regardless of which way the election goes, "most folks around here are GOOD people."
We'll see you on the other side. Fingers crossed.
With love,
Gus and Amy