259: The Great Transformation

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We've met some extraordinary human beings while putting together the third season of our podcast, Hope Is A Verb: people like rewilding pioneer Kris Tompkins; the founder of The Dream Orchestra, Ron Davis Álvarez; and one of the key figures behind the decriminalization of homosexuality in the Cook Islands, Valerie Witchman.

We're thrilled to bring you the trailer for Season 3, featuring a few of their voices. New look, new sound, same idea: what does it actually take to change the world? First episode launches on the 9th of August. Subscribe wherever you get your podcasts.

Check out the 90 second trailer here, or just hit play on the video below:

Good news for people

UN predicts world population to peak earlier, and lower
A new analysis projects a high of about 10.3 billion people by the mid-2080s—and that the population will fall to approximately 10.2 billion by the end of the century, which is 6% lower than predicted a decade ago. This is also earlier than expected, with UN officials describing it as a 'hopeful sign… [that] could mean reduced environmental pressures from human impacts.' Guardian

Incredible progress on maternal and neonatal tetanus
Since the WHO began its maternal and neonatal tetanus elimination initiative in 1999, neonatal mortality due to tetanus in the 59 priority countries has decreased by 84%. Globally, the percentage of infants protected at birth increased from 74% in 2000 to 86% in 2022, and 47 of the 59 priority countries had achieved full elimination by 2022. WHO

Huge breakthrough for the prevention of AIDS
Delegates at the International AIDS Conference last week 'leapt to their feet in delight' after results were shared from one of the most promising HIV prevention trials in the history of the epidemic—a twice-yearly injection of lenacapavir that prevented 100% of new HIV infections among 2,134 women aged 16 to 25. Health Policy Watch

China makes inroads on hepatitis prevention and control
Thanks to a prevention-first, whole-society approach, China's hepatitis B infection rate has continued to fall, especially among children under five, among whom it is now below 1%. Also, the incidence rate of hepatitis A has dropped from 55.69 per 100,000 individuals in 1991 to 1.06 per 100,000 in 2020, and the antiviral cure rate for hepatitis C patients has surpassed 95%. CGTN

G20 nations plan to make the super-rich pay their taxes
At the G20 summit in Brazil, the nations’ finance ministers pledged to 'engage cooperatively to ensure that ultra-high-net-worth individuals are effectively taxed.' Brazilian Finance Minister Fernando Haddad said that 'from a moral point of view, it is important that the 20 richest nations consider that we have a problem, which is to have progressive taxation on the poor and not on the rich.' DW

US crime rates now at their lowest level in decades
'Our crime rate is going up, while crime statistics all over the world are going down because they’re taking their criminals and they’re putting them into our country' (take a guess who said it). Actually, America's violent crime rate is at its lowest level in more than 40 years, and property crime is also at its lowest level in many decades. NYT 🎁

London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone yields results 
New data confirm that the air quality in London has dramatically improved in the year since Mayor Sadiq Khan expanded fees on polluting cars, vans, minibuses, and motorcycles driving into the city. Harmful particulate matter and nitrogen oxide emissions are an estimated 20% lower than they would have been had Khan not expanded the zone to outer London in August 2023. NYT 🎁

Bosnia and Herzegovina crosses bridge to a more hopeful future 
When the Stari Most ('Old Bridge') in the city of Mostar was destroyed during the Yugoslav Wars in 1993, residents called it 'the saddest day of our lives.' Today, thanks to a decades-long collaboration between Bosnia and Herzegovina and the World Bank’s International Development Association, the bridge is whole once more. World Bank

Progress on ending violence against women in Australia 
New data tracking national progress find that the prevalence of physical intimate partner violence has decreased significantly since 1989. Australians’ attitudes towards gender inequality and domestic violence have also improved. In 2023, only 37% of Australian men aged 18-30 felt social pressure to conform to rigid ideals of masculinity, compared to 49% in 2018. Our Watch

More good news you didn't hear about

More than five billion people around the globe can now read and write. Public health officials in Bangladesh say they're on track to eliminate malaria after witnessing a 96% decline in deaths between 2008 and 2023. The real immigration crisis in Germany? Not enough immigrants. In America, human rights lawyers and activists are holding the line: halfway through 2024, just 41 of the 527 anti-LGBTQ+ bills introduced this year have passed into law. More news from the United States that's not about the election: several states have enacted pay transparency laws to fight gender and racial wage gaps; the overall birth rate for 15- to 19-year-olds declined 71% between 2000 and 2022 (with Latina teens seeing the steepest declines); Michigan's latest education budget includes free community college and preschool programs; and Virginia is laying down plans for cell phone-free education in public schools. Scientists have identified a cause of lupus, potentially paving the way for a cure where none currently exists. HPV vaccination rates among Malawi’s schoolgirls are finally rebounding post-COVID, and in Timor-Leste, 61,374 girls will receive the HPV vaccine thanks to support from international partners.

If it bleeds, it leads

A new cross-cultural study has revealed that doomscrolling, 'the habit of continuously consuming negative news online,' significantly increases feelings of existential anxiety, distrust, and despair. Researchers from the United States and Iran found that constant exposure to distressing news reshapes our perception of reality, making life seem more fragile and uncertain.

This phenomenon, described as 'vicarious trauma,' causes symptoms similar to PTSD—even without direct personal experience. The lead author of the study, Dr. Reza Shabahang, explains, 'When we’re constantly exposed to negative news and information online, it can threaten our beliefs about our own mortality and the control we have over our own lives.'

TL;DR: the news makes you sick.

Good news for the planet

Six new sites added to UNESCO World Heritage List
The new sites include a marine hotspot in the Marquesas Islands, coastal sand dunes in Brazil, interdunal lakes and important migratory bird sanctuaries in China, Vjetrenica Cave in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and one of the largest remaining peat bog ecosystems in Scotland. IUCN

China’s progress on ocean protection
The country has protected 150,000 km² within marine 'ecological redlines,' which include biodiverse ecosystems such as wetlands, coral reefs, mangroves, and seagrass meadows. China has also established 352 marine nature reserves, spanning about 93,300 km² of marine habitat, which have aided the recovery of rare species like the spotted seal. Dialogue Earth

Bullfighting bites the dust in Columbia
The Colombian president has signed a bill to ban the centuries-old tradition by 2027, with plans turn more than a dozen bullrings into cultural and sporting venues. 'We cannot tell the world that killing living and sentient beings for entertainment is culture.' This leaves only seven countries where bullfighting remains legal. AP 

A conservation victory for the spotted owl
Canada has taken a step towards protecting the spotted owl, releasing a draft recovery strategy that identifies over 400,000 hectares of old-growth forest critical to the survival of the bird. The historic win is thanks to two decades of First Nations leadership and overwhelming public pressure. Wilderness Committee

Our ancestors taught us the spotted owl is our messenger between this world and the spirit world and how they speak to us, and this new recovery strategy gives them chance at survival.
Chief James Hobart, Spô’zêm First Nation 

Jaguars return to the wilds of Argentina
The Iberá Provincial Reserve in Argentina has celebrated the release of nine jaguars, marking the first time this top predator has been seen in the Iberá area in 70 years. The park is home to one of the most comprehensive rewilding projects on the planet and has reintroduced foundational species like giant anteaters, Pampas deer, and collared peccaries over the past 50 years. Time

Amazon communities save giant freshwater fish
Just over a decade ago, the arapaima, a fish capable of growing up to three metres long, was on the brink of extinction. But thanks to sustainable fishing practices spearheaded by local communities, the arapaima population has increased by 425% in 11 years. Across the Amazon, around 1,100 communities have adopted conservation initiatives for the fish. National Geographic

For many, many decades, people have been looking to the outside for solutions to the problems in the Amazon, but the arapaima story shows that the answers are often in the hands of the local people and communities living in the forest.
João Campos-Silva, Ecologist 

The app helping farmers commit to ‘good fire’ in Thailand
The FireD app is a novel system to reduce deadly smog from agricultural burning in Northern Thailand. Using imagery and data from NASA satellites and thermal drones, the app helps farmers determine the right time to do controlled burns, depending on current atmospheric conditions. The Grist

The EPA is taking steps to regulate vinyl chloride
Experts and environmental groups have been urging the government to take action after a train shipment of the chemical derailed in East Palestine, Ohio, last year. The EPA just designated vinyl chloride, along with four other chemicals used to make plastic, as 'high-priority substances.' If finalized, a years-long study could lead to further restrictions. Toxic Free Future

Jabiluka uranium site protected after decades of activism
In a major win for the Mirarr traditional owners, the application for a ten-year renewal of the mineral lease for the Jabiluka site in Australia, one of the world's largest and richest uranium deposits, will be rejected. The controversial site will be absorbed into Kakadu National Park, ending three decades of uncertainty for First Nations communities. ABC

More music for those who will listen

In the UK, a small fee on plastic bags has resulted in an 80% decrease in litter on beaches over the last decade. This autumn, salmon will return to California’s Klamath River, as the world’s largest dam removal project wraps up. How Shenzhen, China’s most ‘futuristic’ city, restored its mangroves. A revision to the Clean Water Act could mean that US states must consider tribal rights when crafting water rules and protect resources such as wild rice, sturgeon, salmon, and shellfish. Chesapeake Bay in Maryland has received its highest grade in overall health since 2002, proving that cleanup efforts are working. An initiative to rewild 13,000 ha of  South Downs National Park in Sussex and Hampshire has hit the halfway mark. The Grand Canyon will become the first national park in the US to trial eliminating single-use plastic waste, potentially saving over 7.2 million foodware items per year. A decade-long initiative to protect tricolored blackbirds in California has prevented the deaths of at least half a million chicks. Local communities in Wales will begin the restoration of a lost Atlantic rainforest in Pembrokeshire. Meet Europe’s Big Five: wolf, bison, wolverine, brown bear, and lynx.

Solarpunk is a valid belief system

Europe's electricity system accelerates clean transition
A new report by Ember shows that reliance on fossil fuel generation reached an all-time low in the EU in the first half of 2024, with coal down 24% and fossil gas down 14%. A historic moment, as the share of the power mix from wind and solar surpassed that of fossil fuels for the first time, with renewables overall at a record high of 46.4% and fossil fuels at record low of 27%.

We are witnessing a historic shift and it is happening rapidly. If member states can keep up momentum on wind and solar deployment then freedom from fossil power reliance will truly start to come into view.
Chris Rosslowe, Senior Energy & Climate Data Analyst, Ember

The US solar boom is real and accelerating
American solar has already taken great strides this year, notching power generation gains of 25% over the year before, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Agency. That same federal dataset shows that we aren't even accounting for the most productive months of the year yet, suggesting solar production could hit up to 42% for the whole year. Ars Technica

China makes record investments into grid
The world's first electrostate isn't slowing down. State Grid, China's main grid operator, is raising its budget to $83 billion this year, nearly double the capital spend of Saudi Arabia, the world's most powerful petrostate. The investment will help ease transmission system bottlenecks—a hugely important hurdle to bringing new renewables online. Bloomberg

Wind and solar capacity overtake coal capacity in China
Wind power saw an almost 20% jump in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year, and solar soared by over 50%. The China Electricity Council says that at the end of June, wind and solar capacity alone amounted to just over 38% of the country's total installed power, exceeding coal capacity for the first time ever. CGTN

South Africa passes its first major climate law
With an eye toward its Paris climate agreement obligations, one of the world's most carbon-intensive economies, South Africa, has passed its first-ever major climate law. The legislation mandates municipal climate adaptation plans and emissions targets that government ministers will need to develop measures in order to meet. Reuters

Half of all cars sold in China are now electric vehicles
There it is. Of all cars sold in the world's largest automarket in June, 49.9% were plug-in vehicles. Specifically, that works out to 876,000 out of a 1.76-million-unit overall market. That’s up 23% year over year. Just a reminder—in order to stay on track for global net zero targets, 60% of the global new car market needs to be electric by 2030. Right now, that's looking pretty good. Clean Technica

Plug-and-play solar panels are taking off across Germany
Instead of relying on electricians to install rooftop systems, over half a million German households have turned to solar panels that can be simply plugged in, and hung off balconies. So far, 9 GW of these panels have been installed, thanks to laws that prevent landlords from blocking them, and now rock-bottom prices are enticing customers in Austria, France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. NYT 🎁

What's the opposite of doom-scrolling?

Offshore wind's environmental issues aren't nearly as bad as most critics make out. New research shows that after 25 years, residential solar panels still produce 82-93% of their original output. Hallelujah! Churches across the United States are going green (and saving money). The US has built 700 new or expanded clean energy manufacturing facilities since the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act. South African rooftop solar rose over 3.5 GW in the past two years, pushing total renewable capacity to over 12 GW. California, the world's fifth-largest economy, has managed to supply itself with 100% renewable power for 100 days this year (this is the path that South Australia took, too). There have been a bunch of other solar and battery storage policy wins across US states this year. Vietnamese companies can now buy power directly from wind and solar producers instead of from a state-run utility. New data suggest EV sales could account for nearly a third of all new cars sold in America by 2027 and 48% by 2030. Evidence of heavy EV interest in several African countries. A possible China-US climate agreement could result in a massive reduction in climate 'super pollutant' nitrous oxide. That happened fast—most new steelmaking capacity globally now runs on electricity. At what point does driving an EV in America become better for the planet? This helpful calculator does the math for you.

Indistinguishable from magic

AI solves advanced reasoning problems in mathematics
The International Math Olympiad is humanity's oldest, largest, and most prestigious competition for young mathematicians, held annually since 1959. Alphafold, Google's reinforcement-learning-based system, and AlphaGeometry 2, their geometry-solving system, just achieved silver medal status for the first time. It's a big deal for proponents of neurosymbolic approaches to AI. MIT Tech Review

Breakthrough by humans on math’s biggest problem
After more than a decade of work, James Maynard, one of the world's greatest mathematicians, has teamed up with Larry Guth from MIT to make the first progress in decades on a major knot in the 165-year-old Riemann hypothesis. This work—which is expected to ripple throughout the field of number theory—is a proof that people 'are going to be mining for years.' Scientific American

I don’t at all expect to resolve the Riemann hypothesis. But we hope that wondering about something we don’t understand will help find something that is beautiful or maybe even useful.
James Maynard, University of Oxford

A digital twin for human blood circulation
Great profile here in Quanta of Amanda Randles, a computer scientist whose model can predict the fluid dynamics of blood flow in an individual for over 700,000 heartbeats. 'If she had her way, she’d have enough data — and processing power — to effectively clone you on her computer, run the clock forward, and see what your coronary arteries or red blood cells might do in a week.'

James Webb Telescope takes photos of exoplanet
Astronomers have directly photographed a planet six times as massive as Jupiter orbiting one of the closest stars to the Sun. It is the first extrasolar planet to be discovered through direct imaging using the James Webb Space Telescope. The planet, named ε Indi Ab, is around 15 times as far from its host star as Earth is from the Sun, and its temperature is just above 0ºC. Nature

Tell us this isn't the perfect start to a steampunk story
For the first time, a fully mechanical titanium heart, which uses the same technology as high-speed rail lines, has been implanted inside a human being. The device is not the first artificial heart—but it is the first to employ maglev technology, allowing it to last a lot longer, and marking a major step in keeping people alive as they wait for heart transplants. New Atlas

Tell us this isn't the perfect start to a cyberpunk story
Australian scientists have genetically engineered black soldier flies to eat more of humanity’s organic waste, producing ingredients for everything from lubricants and biofuels to high-grade animal feeds. The team has created a spin-off company to commercialise their work and hopes to have the first genetically-engineered flies in waste facilities by the end of the year. Guardian

Brain parasite engineered into living drug delivery system
Researchers at MIT have devised a way to engineer toxoplasma gondii, a protozoan parasite famous for its ability to modify animal behaviour, to deliver drugs across the blood-brain barrier, presenting a potentially powerful new avenue for treat neurological diseases. 'This study demonstrates a turning of tables with a rare opportunity to use a parasite to better human health.' Fierce Biotech

First solar panel installer robot
One of America's biggest renewable energy companies just unveiled a robot that can install the thousands of heavy panels that typically make up a large solar array. The robot, nicknamed Maximo, will start work later this year at the company's largest solar-plus-storage project, in Arizona. The robot will ultimately be able to install solar panels twice as fast as humans can, at half the cost. NYT

The information superhighway is still out there

It's the 80th anniversary of the publication of what for me (Gus) is the most important political economy book of the 20th century. The ideas contained in Karl Polanyi's Great Transformation, which I first came across 20 years ago as an undergraduate at the University of Cape Town, have given me a better framework for understanding what's happening in world politics right now than anything else I can think of. Very happy to see this work getting a little bit of belated recognition. The Conversation

Listen to the secret language of sperm whales.

Remember in the 90s when doctors said drinking wine had positive health benefits? Turns out that wasn't actually true. If you want to understand the real impact of alcohol on your health, do yourself a favour and spend ten minutes reading this. The science has changed, and we all need to update our mental models. Slate

This is a great new way of thinking about creativity from a software engineer. His argument is that creativity is 'a flash of inspiration connecting internalised concepts.' Once you've memorised a subject and internalised it, you have access to a whole lot of heuristics. That means that memorisation, contrary to popular belief, doesn't make things mechanical, but instead enables creativity and intuition by reducing the energy needed for the basics, freeing you up to focus on higher-level novelty.

The incredible physics of Simone Bile's Yurchenko Double Pike. Didn't even know it was possible to geek out this hard. Wired

I'll assume that Simone's angular velocity in the pre-pike position is 6.72 rad/s and then in the pike it's 15.49. From this, we can calculate the ratio of moments of inertia for the straight and pike positions.

Disillusioned and drained after dancing for a living became too much, Laura Killingbeck packed up her bike and bought a one-way ticket to Alaska. Cycling and the outdoors brought her true solitude. In the people she encountered, she found generosity, kindness, and what she needed most: human connection and community. Bicycling

Days turned into weeks, the Yukon became British Columbia, and slowly I dissolved into the joy of flow. Every pedal stroke became part of the rhythm of breath and motion. Every thought and feeling became transient, like the sky. I cried a lot as I rode, often from gratitude, and these tears seemed to cleanse me from the inside out. It didn’t matter what I looked like out here or what anyone thought of me. I was free to fall apart, and inside that dissolution, for fleeting moments, I felt whole. My body was useful in a way that finally made sense. In that moment I understood: Joy was its own form of power.

And finally, we can confidently say that no matter how hard you try, you will never, ever be as cool as Kim Ye-ji.

That's it for this edition, thanks for reading we'll see you next week!

With love,

Gus and Amy